Implications of a Post-War Economic Order for Global Supply Chains

Moreover, trust in the reliability of global value chains has been further eroded—just two years after the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis and the resulting severe disruptions to supply chains it caused. In addition, the rise of geopolitical tensions with China has also contributed to a reconsideration of trade links and supply chain dependencies. While many of the repercussions are still to materialize in the future and are thus highly uncertain, some explorative thinking about possible long-term changes is warranted at this point in time. The following is a monograph prepared by several members of the Global Trade and Innovation Policy Alliance (GTIPA) on how the Ukraine conflict will shape global supply chains and impact their countries specifically and the global economy more broadly. It shares the views and perspectives of the authors and not necessarily those of other members of the GTIPA.