According to a dominant narrative, the recent crisis has allegedly shown that EMU is not sustainable without fiscal risk sharing. We question this narrative and suggest that a limited set of reforms (mostly focusing on the financial sector) would suffice to make EMU sustainable.

Targeted reforms instead of more fiscal integration: What is the future for the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) going to be like?
IW-Report
Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW)
According to a dominant narrative, the recent crisis has allegedly shown that EMU is not sustainable without fiscal risk sharing. We question this narrative and suggest that a limited set of reforms (mostly focusing on the financial sector) would suffice to make EMU sustainable.
This debate has gained traction recently with the Five-Presidents-Report and a work programme of the EU Commission.
In brief, we argue that:
- The recent crisis was exceptional, because several extraordinary factors contributed to its severity that are unlikely to repeat.
- The remaining crisis legacy is likely to be temporary and should thus be tackled with temporary instruments only, such as the ECB’s unconventional monetary policy, for example.
- Reforms already implemented and yet to be taken can prevent excessive financial cycles in the future so that future crises in the euro area will be less severe.
- The functioning of EMU has been improved by recent reforms and need to be enhanced by some additional reforms mainly regarding the financial market.
- On this basis, euro area countries will be much better able to deal with idiosyncratic crises of a more “standard” size.

Jürgen Matthes / Anna Iara: On the Future of EMU: Targeted reforms instead of more fiscal integration
IW-Report
Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW)
Targeted reforms instead of more fiscal integration: What is the future for the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) going to be like?
IW-Report
Jürgen Matthes: On the Future of EMU: Targeted reforms instead of more fiscal integration – Extended Summary
Geldpolitik und Finanzpolitik im Dilemma
Bei der Prognose der Wirtschaftsentwicklung für das Jahr 2023 landet man nicht nur in der gewohnten Nebelwand schlechter Sichtverhältnisse aufgrund unzureichend weit weisender Frühindikatoren und theoretischer Modelle.
IW
Zeitenwende bei Inflation und Zinsen
Lieferengpässe im Zuge der Covid-19-Pandemie und der Krieg Russlands gegen die Ukraine haben dazu beigetragen, dass die Inflationsraten wieder angestiegen sind. In dieser Studie wird argumentiert, dass sich dadurch sechs strukturelle Faktoren verstärkt haben. ...
IW