COVID-19 and the Growth Potential

Changes in behaviour such as a greater acceptance of technology can strengthen potential output permanently. By contrast, negative effects may arise from growing protectionist attitudes or long-lasting uncertainties and “scarring effects”. In any case, the crisis has induced a technology push. This may be intensified if digitisation gains additional support from investments in infrastructure or if the pandemic heralds a renaissance in the natural sciences – with a corresponding impact on human capital and physical capital as well as on technical knowledge. For the time being, it is unclear what the effects of restructuring and secular structural change will be on potential output. How-ever, dangers are lurking in the acceleration of geopolitical tensions, a misunderstanding of technological sovereignty and increasing government interventions, which as a whole could hamper innovation and investment.