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Michael Grömling IW-Report No. 53 20. October 2020 COVID-19 and the Growth Potential

The lasting economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will become apparent in the development of the macroeconomic factors of production – labour, capital, human capital as well as the stock of technical knowledge.

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COVID-19 and the Growth Potential
Michael Grömling IW-Report No. 53 20. October 2020

COVID-19 and the Growth Potential

IW-Report

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The lasting economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will become apparent in the development of the macroeconomic factors of production – labour, capital, human capital as well as the stock of technical knowledge.

Changes in behaviour such as a greater acceptance of technology can strengthen potential output permanently. By contrast, negative effects may arise from growing protectionist attitudes or long-lasting uncertainties and “scarring effects”. In any case, the crisis has induced a technology push. This may be intensified if digitisation gains additional support from investments in infrastructure or if the pandemic heralds a renaissance in the natural sciences – with a corresponding impact on human capital and physical capital as well as on technical knowledge. For the time being, it is unclear what the effects of restructuring and secular structural change will be on potential output. How-ever, dangers are lurking in the acceleration of geopolitical tensions, a misunderstanding of technological sovereignty and increasing government interventions, which as a whole could hamper innovation and investment.

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COVID-19 and the Growth Potential
Michael Grömling IW-Report No. 53 20. October 2020

Michael Grömling: COVID-19 and the Growth Potential

IW-Report

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Disrupted Production, Price Rises and Pandemic Policies
IW-Forschungsgruppe Gesamtwirtschaftliche Analysen und Konjunktur IW-Trends No. 4 29. November 2021

IW Economic Forecast Winter 2021: Disrupted Production, Price Rises and Pandemic Policies

In the course of 2021 Germany’s economic recovery has once again perceptibly lost momentum. After the strain brought about at the beginning of the year by the lockdown for the second and third waves of the Covid19 pandemic, manufacturing and construction ...

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Hubertus Bardt / Matthias Diermeier / Michael Grömling / Michael Hüther / Thomas Obst IW-Report No. 27 9. August 2021

Supply bottlenecks and price developments for raw materials and inputs

Having experienced strict economic lockdowns, the post-pandemic period various sectors report severe supply side bottlenecks and price increases for intermediate goods.

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