Threats & Opportunities for German and EU trade: What about the world export champion?

Germany and the European Union have long been pillars of the global trading system, known for their export-driven economies and commitment to free trade. Yet their roles are under pressure. Geopolitical tensions, rising protectionism, and the intensifying US-China rivalry are reshaping global trade and challenging Europe's economic model.

While the US pursues industrial policies prioritizing domestic production, the EU must navigate complex negotiations for fairer transatlantic trade. Persistent tariffs – especially on steel and aluminum – continue to strain EU-US relations. The EU has signaled openness to negotiation while stressing its readiness to defend European interests. Key topics include liquefied natural gas, agriculture, and defense goods – areas with both economic and strategic weight.

The recent IW study “German export dominance in foreign trade - Where is Germany still world export champion?”, conducted for the German Foreign Office by Samina Sultan and Jürgen Matthes showcases Germany as key example for why the European trade position is challenged. While Germany still dominates global exports in roughly 180 product groups – mostly in machinery, chemicals, and base metals – this number has declined steadily since 2010. Although certain industrial sectors remain strong, China’s exports have risen sharply, expanding its global market share in many of the same categories.

The report underlines that Germany’s dominant export position is weakening and warns of long-term erosion without a strategic recalibration. In this shifting environment, several key questions arise: How should the EU position itself given trade tensions with the US and China? What are the long-term prospects for Germany’s role as a world export champion? How can Europe ensure continued strength in international trade despite growing external pressures? 

These and other timely questions will be addressed in our expert panel discussion. We are pleased to welcome from the Parliament’s Committee on International Trade (INTA) MEP Miriam Lexmann (EPP/SK), alongside Jürgen Matthes, Head of International Economic Policy at IW as well as representants from the European Commission’s DG Trade and the German industry.

Agenda

Welcoming Remarks
Dr. Beatrice Gorawantschy, Director of the KAS’ European Office

Presentation of the Study
Jürgen Matthes, Head of International Economic Policy, IW
Dr. Samina Sultan, Senior Economist for European Economic Policy and Trade, IW

Expert Panel
Miriam Lexmann, MEP (EPP/SK), INTA Committee
Jürgen Matthes, German Economic Institute (IW)
Representative of the European Commission, DG Trade
Representative of German Industry 

Moderation
Sandra Parthie, German Economic Institute (IW)

Location: 
European Office of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung
Avenue de l'Yser 11
1040 Brussels