Wo die Unternehmen neue Produktionskapazitäten schaffen und bestehende Anlagen auf den neuesten Stand bringen, werden Arbeitsplätze geschaffen und die Grundlagen für das Wachstum von morgen gelegt.
The global economic climate has deteriorated. The protectionist tone of the US administration is provoking a world-wide trade conflict which may well trigger other problems, such as financial crises in China or in Europe.
Overall investment activity in Germany is currently a hot topic in international economic policy discussions. In the controversy over Germany’s large current account surpluses, the argument is regularly put forward that imports of goods lag behind exports due to the overly weak domestic demand within Germany.
Since 2014, China has been investing more abroad than foreign companies have been investing in China. The Chinese government is encouraging foreign direct investment not only to modernize the economy, but also to acquire influence and secure essential resources. In Germany, the activities of Chinese investors have come under increasing criticism, though only a small proportion of Chinese direct investment is directed towards Germany.
The German economy remains on an expansion course, with real gross domestic product expected to grow by over 1 ½ percent in 2017 and by 1 ¾ percent in 2018, the lower number of working days acting as a brake on macroeconomic performance in the current year.
2016 has seen an ongoing and dramatic increase in economic and political uncertainty. Besides the growth problems of the larger emerging economies and the as yet unsolved debt and structural problems in Europe, the anticipated exit of the United Kingdom from the EU and the election results in the USA have reduced companies’ long-term planning horizon even further.
IW Economic Forecast Spring 2016
An Empirical Reassessment
At the beginning of 2016 the price for crude oil plummeted once again. Model simulations show that the greatest positive effect of this fall is to be expected in private consumption. The...
The State of the Economy at a Glance
The Expectations and Explanations of German Companies
Head of the Research Group Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast
Tel+49 221 4981-776
Mailgroemling@iwkoeln.de
