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Growth and Business Cycle

A prospering economy raises the standard of living of the population, creates jobs and fills the state coffers, from which tasks such as education, environmental protection and social security are financed.

About the topic

Over the past 60 years, the social market economy has enabled the citizens of the Federal Republic to increase their nominal income fivefold on average. Even though prosperity has grown considerably over the long term, economic setbacks have had to be endured time and again, because economic growth does not proceed uniformly, but in waves. The yardsticks for economic development include consumption, public and private investment and gross domestic product. A positive economic trend with high growth rates and increasing employment is followed by a downturn with low growth and fewer people in work.

The Institute of the German Economy monitors the current economic situation in Germany and economic developments in other countries using various instruments and regularly publishes economic forecasts. In this way, the IW helps to improve the basis for decision-making in politics and business.

German Economic Institute (IW) German Economic Institute (IW)

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German Foreign Investment and the debate over Germany as a business location
IW-Report No. 39 6. October 2026 Samina Sultan / Jürgen Matthes

German Foreign Investment and the debate over Germany as a business location

Geopolitical pressure and the debate over Germany’s competitiveness make it necessary to develop a more precise understanding of German foreign direct investment. This report provides a comprehensive empirical analysis and also examines the implications for Germany as a business location.

Samina Sultan / Jürgen Matthes IW

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Trade and Cooperation Between the EU and the Gulf States
IW-Report No. 21 22. July 2026 Simon Gerards Iglesias / Nicolas Reeves*

Trade and Cooperation Between the EU and the Gulf States

Driven especially by the policies of US President Donald Trump, rising global economic fragmentation and geopolitical disorder have lent renewed strategic importance to the prospective free trade agreement (FTA) between the European Union (EU) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

Simon Gerards Iglesias / Nicolas Reeves* IW

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Free and Fair Trade Club to build Middle Power Weight
IW-Policy Paper No. 7 13. July 2026 Jürgen Matthes

Free and Fair Trade Club to build Middle Power Weight

This paper proposes that the EU should build a cooperation platform together with the CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership).

Jürgen Matthes IW

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Transatlantic trade at a crossroads
IW-Report No. 32 3. July 2026 Galina Kolev-Schaefer / Samina Sultan

Transatlantic trade at a crossroads

As the US celebrates a quarter of a millennium of independence, transatlantic trade relations stand at a crossroads. The year 2025 was marked by the introduction of unprecedented tariffs by the US administration.

Galina Kolev-Schaefer / Samina Sultan IW

Our Experts

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Michael Grömling

Prof. Dr. Michael Grömling

Head of Macroeconomic and the Business Cycle Research Group

Tel: +49 221 4981-776
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Galina Kolev-Schaefer

Prof. Dr. Galina Kolev-Schaefer

Senior Economist for Trade Policy and Foreign Economic Activity

Tel: +49 221 4981-774 @galina_kolev
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Leiter des Clusters Internationale Wirtschaftspolitik, Finanz- und Immobilienmärkte

Jürgen Matthes

Head of International Economic Policy, Financial and Real Estate Markets Research Unit

Tel: +49 221 4981-754 Jürgen Matthes
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Klaus-Heiner Röhl

Dr. Klaus-Heiner Röhl

Senior Economist for SME Policy and Regional Policy

Tel: +49 30 27877-103 Klaus-Heiner Röhl
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Fiscal Effects of Having Children
IW-Report No. 43 15. October 2026

Fiscal Effects of Having Children

Wido Geis-Thöne

The fiscal effects of children are relevant to various areas of policymaking.

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Event 14. October 2026 Alexander Radunz

Expert Workshop on the Industrial Accelerator Act

The German Economic Institute (IW) and Frontier Economics are pleased to invite you to a rapporteur & stakeholder workshop on the Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA) in Brussels.

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Universal entitlement, unequal provision: childcare in segregated German cities
External Publication 13. October 2026

Universal entitlement, unequal provision: childcare in segregated German cities

Matthias Diermeier / Jan Engler* / Melinda Fremerey / Leon Wansleben* in Journal of Social Policy

One mechanism driving persistent inequalities in childcare provision, despite rising investments and a substantial expansion of childcare facilities, may consist in the locational choices of providers, who eschew poorer neighbourhoods.

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A Comparison of Public Revenues Across the Federal States
IW-Report No. 41 12. October 2026

A Comparison of Public Revenues Across the Federal States

Björn Kauder

To ensure equivalent living conditions, the federal government influences the revenues of the states and municipalities. Under the fiscal equalization system, financially weak states receive surpluses in the distribution of sales tax revenues, while financially strong states must accept shortfalls.

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German Foreign Investment and the debate over Germany as a business location
IW-Report No. 39 6. October 2026

German Foreign Investment and the debate over Germany as a business location

Samina Sultan / Jürgen Matthes

Geopolitical pressure and the debate over Germany’s competitiveness make it necessary to develop a more precise understanding of German foreign direct investment. This report provides a comprehensive empirical analysis and also examines the implications for Germany as a business location.

Read study
The Honesty-Attitude-Behavior Gap: A Cross-Country Comparison
IW-Trends No. 3 29. September 2026

The Honesty-Attitude-Behavior Gap: A Cross-Country Comparison

Dominik Enste / Jennifer Potthoff / Augustin Renz

Honesty reduces transaction costs and is therefore a prerequisite for effective economic cooperation.

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Event 28. September 2026 Sandra Parthie / Alexander Radunz

Online-Veranstaltungsreihe „Von Brüssel nach Berlin”: Regionalentwicklung und Industriepolitik

Wir laden Sie herzlich zu einer weiteren Online-Veranstaltung unserer Veranstaltungsreihe „Von Brüssel nach Berlin“ ein. Mit ihr wollen wir in loser Folge Themen aus der europäischen in die deutsche Hauptstadt tragen.

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Complementary Capabilities for Circular Practices: Firm-Level Evidence in Germany on the Role of Digitalization and Innovation
External Publication 16. September 2026

Complementary Capabilities for Circular Practices: Firm-Level Evidence in Germany on the Role of Digitalization and Innovation

Sarah Lichtenthäler / Adriana Neligan in Journal of Circular Economy

The transition to a circular economy (CE) requires firms to reconfigure business models, processes and capabilities.

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Making Apprenticeships a Success: From Marketing to Hiring
IW-Report No. 38 11. September 2026

Making Apprenticeships a Success: From Marketing to Hiring

Paula Risius / Dirk Werner / Philip Herzer / Fritz Orange / Regina Flake / Franziska Arndt / Yasin Küçükyavuz / Edgar Schmitz

In-company vocational training is a key factor in securing skilled labour. The first step in investing in future employees is to approach and recruit new apprentices. For many companies, filling the apprenticeship positions they offer is a challenge.

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Transatlantic Subnational Innovation Competitiveness Index 3.0
Expertise 11. September 2026

Transatlantic Subnational Innovation Competitiveness Index 3.0

Axel Plünnecke et al

Innovation and competitiveness drive productivity, economic growth, and welfare growth.

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