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Growth and Business Cycle

A prospering economy raises the standard of living of the population, creates jobs and fills the state coffers, from which tasks such as education, environmental protection and social security are financed.

About the topic

Over the past 60 years, the social market economy has enabled the citizens of the Federal Republic to increase their nominal income fivefold on average. Even though prosperity has grown considerably over the long term, economic setbacks have had to be endured time and again, because economic growth does not proceed uniformly, but in waves. The yardsticks for economic development include consumption, public and private investment and gross domestic product. A positive economic trend with high growth rates and increasing employment is followed by a downturn with low growth and fewer people in work.

The Institute of the German Economy monitors the current economic situation in Germany and economic developments in other countries using various instruments and regularly publishes economic forecasts. In this way, the IW helps to improve the basis for decision-making in politics and business.

German Economic Institute (IW) German Economic Institute (IW)

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Determinants of personnel planning in Germany
Michael Grömling / Stefanie Seele IW-Report No. 27 21. May 2024

Determinants of personnel planning in Germany

The German labor market has been growing since 2005. The dip in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic between 2020 and 2022 is an exception, as the German labor market has reached a record level of 45.9 million people in employment by 2023.

IW

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Jürgen Matthes in Intereconomics External Publication 9. April 2024

China’s Trade Surplus – Implications for the World and for Europe

China’s merchandise trade surplus has reached an all-time high and is likely to rise further. A key driver appears to be a policy push to further bolster Chinese domestic manufacturing production, implying the danger of significant overcapacities.

IW

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Der ehemalige Präsident Trump hält eine Wahlkampfveranstaltung in Greensboro, North Carolina
Thomas Obst / Jürgen Matthes / Samina Sultan IW-Report No. 14 4. March 2024

What if Trump is re-elected?

A possible re-election of Donald Trump as US president in November 2024 could entail a significant upheaval for the world trading order, if he fulfills his announcements to raise tariffs, mainly in order to reduce the US trade deficit.

IW

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Luftaufnahme der Innenstadt von Jakarta, der Hauptstadt Indonesiens.
Samina Sultan / Gero Kunath / Henrik Förster/ Jürgen Matthes IW-Report No. 9 15. February 2024

Indonesia: A new Indo-Pacific partner?

Indonesia will elect a new president on 14 February. After ten successful years in office, Joko Widodo is not allowed to run for office again. He has ushered in an era of reform in the country.

IW

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Michael Grömling

Prof. Dr. Michael Grömling

Head of Macroeconomic and the Business Cycle Research Unit

Tel: +49 221 4981-776
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Leiter des Clusters Internationale Wirtschaftspolitik, Finanz- und Immobilienmärkte

Jürgen Matthes

Head of International Economic Policy, Financial and Real Estate Markets Research Unit

Tel: +49 221 4981-754 Jürgen Matthes
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Klaus-Heiner Röhl

Dr. Klaus-Heiner Röhl

Senior Economist for SME Policy and Regional Policy

Tel: +49 30 27877-103 Klaus-Heiner Röhl
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Determinants of personnel planning in Germany
IW-Report No. 27 21. May 2024

Determinants of personnel planning in Germany

Michael Grömling / Stefanie Seele

The German labor market has been growing since 2005. The dip in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic between 2020 and 2022 is an exception, as the German labor market has reached a record level of 45.9 million people in employment by 2023.

IW

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Investment needs in infrastructure and for the transformation
IW-Policy Paper No. 2 14. May 2024

Challenges for the debt brake

Sebastian Dullien* / Simon Gerards Iglesias / Michael Hüther / Katja Rietzler*

In 2019, Bardt et al. (2019) initially presented a comprehensive estimate of the unmet public investment needs in Germany not covered in household planning at the time, totaling around €460 billion over ten years.

IW

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External Publication
Dependency of the German and Italian Industry on China Intermediate Inputs
External Publication 17. April 2024

Not so Different?: Dependency of the German and Italian Industry on China Intermediate Inputs

Samina Sultan at IEP@BU Policy Brief

On average the German and Italian industry display a very similar intermediate input dependence on China, whether accounting for domestic inputs or not.

IW

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External Publication
China’s Trade Surplus – Implications for the World and for Europe
External Publication 9. April 2024

China’s Trade Surplus – Implications for the World and for Europe

Jürgen Matthes in Intereconomics

China’s merchandise trade surplus has reached an all-time high and is likely to rise further. A key driver appears to be a policy push to further bolster Chinese domestic manufacturing production, implying the danger of significant overcapacities.

IW

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An anatomy of high German import dependencies on China
IW-Report No. 18 9. April 2024

Import side De-risking China in 2023

Jürgen Matthes

Despite certain changes, German import dependencies on China remained at a similar level overall in 2023 as in the previous year in the overall picture. This means that de-risking on the import side can only be recognised to a limited extent.

IW

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