Is the EU Fit for 55 and Beyond?

The primary objective of the Green Deal is outlined and codified in the European Climate Law, which was published in the Official Journal of the European Union and came into effect in July 2021 (Regulation (EU) 2021/1119, 2021). The goals specified in this regulation are binding for both the European Union and its member states. Specifically, greenhouse gas emissions are targeted to decrease by 55% in 2030 compared to 1990 (Article 4(1)). Climate neutrality should be achieved by 2050, with subsequent efforts focusing on negative emissions (Article 2(1)). The EU, under the presidency of von der Leyen, has introduced regulations to compel member states to adopt a highly ambitious climate protection policy.

Against the backdrop of these goals, and given that the upcoming European Parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place between 6 and 9 June 2024 – potentially resulting in a new Commission and Commission President – this article aims to provide an overview of the current status of greenhouse gas emissions in the EU and its member states. To underscore the scale of this effort, the article compares state aid spending related to environmental protection, including energy savings, with the achieved reduction in greenhouse gas emissions thus far. The paper concludes with policy recommendations to enhance the efficiency of future investments and discusses the consequences of a changed constitution of the Parliament after the elections.

Before delving into the development and current status of greenhouse gases, it must be acknowledged that despite the Green Deal being proposed in 2019, the Commission under Ursula von der Leyen has only taken initial steps. The adoption of the last two proposals of the Fit for 55 package occurred on 9 October 2023. This package introduces regulations to achieve the intermediate goal for 2030 set by the European Climate Law. Consequently, it is still too early to assess whether the Commission under Ursula von der Leyen is on track, considering the recent implementation of these laws.

Nevertheless, this paper contributes to the discussion by highlighting the remaining tasks outlined in the Climate Law and identifying the member states with the highest emissions. Despite the recent adoption of regulations aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, it is questionable whether governments will wait, given that climate change is deemed “the biggest security threat of our times” by the German Federal Foreign Office (2023) or as having the potential to result in a global catastrophe (Kemp et al., 2022). Moreover, the Green Deal is deemed crucial for “creating jobs and boosting innovation,” representing what von der Leyen refers to as “Europe’s man on the moon moment” (Hutchinson, 2019).