Record immigration not only due to flight from Ukraine

The main reason for this was the flight from the Russian war of aggression on Ukraine in February. On balance, a total of 960,000 people came to Germany from here in 2022. In their case, it was possible for the first time in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany for refugees from a war zone to enter Germany without a visa, which makes immigration much easier than for refugees from outside Europe. Against this backdrop, an improvement of the situation in Ukraine could also quickly lead to a comparatively strong return migration. It is not yet possible to assess the long-term impact of accepting refugees from Ukraine on securing skilled labour and public budgets, as their integration is still at its beginning.

Disregarding immigration from Ukraine, the total net immigration of 503,000 people from other countries in 2022 is still at historically very high level. This is largely due to a renewed increase in the influx of refugees from outside Europe. In 2022, a total of 218,000 first-time applications for asylum were filed, most of them (71,000) by Syrian nationals. The trend is still upwards. In the first half of 2023, the number of asylum applications was already 150,000. It should be noted that Ukrainian nationals in Germany currently receive refugee protection through other channels. Many of these refugees from outside Europe have only a very low level of qualification, have difficulties in the German labour market and are dependent on state transfer payments. Therefore, despite the increasing demographic gaps in the working-age population, their influx is not necessarily advantageous for Germany from an economic point of view. However, it should be borne in mind that the admission of refugees is based on humanitarian considerations and should therefore not be assessed primarily on the basis of economic criteria.

The situation is different for immigration from the new EU member states and the Western Balkan countries, which was also very significant with balances of 78,000 and 65,000 persons in 2022. Most of the people moving from here succeed in integrating well into the German labour market, so that they also contribute substantially to the stabilisation of public budgets. However, these regions of origin are also strongly affected by demographic change. This has a negative effect on the future migration potential and is an argument against a priority recruitment of skilled workers for the German labour market from here. Therefore, a targeted strategy to secure the skilled labour force through immigration must focus on demographically strong countries outside Europe. Germany has already achieved major successes in this area in India in recent years. On balance, around 38,000 more migrated to Germany from India in 2022. Moreover, with a share of 56.5 per cent in September 2022, employees subject to social insurance contributions with Indian citizenship very often exercised activities that typically require a university degree or advanced training qualification as a master craftsman. Immigration from other non-European countries, such as Egypt, Indonesia and Colombia, is very favourable in terms of securing skilled labour and stabilising public budgets, too. However, it is at a much lower level. India's outstanding position is largely due to the fact that more than one sixth of the world's population lives here.