The Effect of the Recent Influx of Refugees on Germany’s Economy
Tobias Hentze / Galina Kolev IW-Trends No. 4 16. January 2017 The Effect of the Recent Influx of Refugees on Germany’s Economy
In the course of 2015 and 2016 about 1.2 million refugees entered Germany. The authors estimate the short- to medium-term effects of this on the country’s economic development using a macro-econometric model.
In the course of 2015 and 2016 about 1.2 million refugees entered Germany. The authors estimate the short- to medium-term effects of this on the country’s economic development using a macro-econometric model.
On the one hand the effect on per-capita income and the fiscal balance will be slightly negative, while unemployment will also rise as a result of the refugees’ presence. On the other hand higher public expenditures together with an increasing number of employed refugees will boost economic growth. Between 2016 and 2020 the accumulated increase in the country’s real GDP could amount to as much as € 95 billion. The actual extent of this effect will largely depend on labour market integration and education policy.
Dominik Enste / Hans-Peter Klös IW-Policy Paper No. 27 1. December 2021
Growth, Equity and Sustainability
In the last two decades, a debate has unfolded around the relationship between growth and well-being that has produced numerous new concepts, indicators and sets of targets. This increasingly includes an emphasis on sustainability concepts.
Martin Beznoska / Björn Kauder / Thomas Obst IW-Policy Paper No. 2 3. February 2021
Investment, Human Capital and Growth Effects of Public Spending
Unlike public sector consumption, public investment is often regarded as contributing to growth. Yet while spending on "intangible" goods such as education does not count as investment, even though it is potentially growth-enhancing, expenditure with little to ...
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