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Tobias Hentze / Galina Kolev IW-Trends No. 4 16. January 2017 The Effect of the Recent Influx of Refugees on Germany’s Economy

In the course of 2015 and 2016 about 1.2 million refugees entered Germany. The authors estimate the short- to medium-term effects of this on the country’s economic development using a macro-econometric model.

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The Effect of the Recent Influx of Refugees on Germany’s Economy
Tobias Hentze / Galina Kolev IW-Trends No. 4 16. January 2017

The Effect of the Recent Influx of Refugees on Germany’s Economy

IW-Trends

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German Economic Institute German Economic Institute

In the course of 2015 and 2016 about 1.2 million refugees entered Germany. The authors estimate the short- to medium-term effects of this on the country’s economic development using a macro-econometric model.

On the one hand the effect on per-capita income and the fiscal balance will be slightly negative, while unemployment will also rise as a result of the refugees’ presence. On the other hand higher public expenditures together with an increasing number of employed refugees will boost economic growth. Between 2016 and 2020 the accumulated increase in the country’s real GDP could amount to as much as € 95 billion. The actual extent of this effect will largely depend on labour market integration and education policy.

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The Effect of the Recent Influx of Refugees on Germany’s Economy
Tobias Hentze / Galina Kolev IW-Trends No. 4 16. January 2017

Tobias Hentze / Galina Kolev: Gesamtwirtschaftliche Effekte der Flüchtlingsmigration in Deutschland

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German Economic Institute German Economic Institute

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The Productivity Effects of Capital Formation in Germany
Michael Grömling IW-Trends No. 2 9. May 2022

The Productivity Effects of Capital Formation in Germany

Despite broad-based digitalisation, productivity advances in Germany in recent years have been considerably lower than in previous decades. This paper conducts a growth accounting which points to steeply declining stimuli from technical progress and especially ...

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Jürgen Matthes IW-Policy Paper No. 1 25. February 2022

Stability instead of government overreach

Contrary to what the German government seems to be aiming for, a reform of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) is necessary. The debt reduction rule forces highly indebted euro countries to reduce their debt too quickly and too damagingly for growth.

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