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Tobias Hentze / Galina Kolev IW-Trends No. 4 16. January 2017 The Effect of the Recent Influx of Refugees on Germany’s Economy

In the course of 2015 and 2016 about 1.2 million refugees entered Germany. The authors estimate the short- to medium-term effects of this on the country’s economic development using a macro-econometric model.

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The Effect of the Recent Influx of Refugees on Germany’s Economy
Tobias Hentze / Galina Kolev IW-Trends No. 4 16. January 2017

The Effect of the Recent Influx of Refugees on Germany’s Economy

IW-Trends

German Economic Institute (IW) German Economic Institute (IW)

In the course of 2015 and 2016 about 1.2 million refugees entered Germany. The authors estimate the short- to medium-term effects of this on the country’s economic development using a macro-econometric model.

On the one hand the effect on per-capita income and the fiscal balance will be slightly negative, while unemployment will also rise as a result of the refugees’ presence. On the other hand higher public expenditures together with an increasing number of employed refugees will boost economic growth. Between 2016 and 2020 the accumulated increase in the country’s real GDP could amount to as much as € 95 billion. The actual extent of this effect will largely depend on labour market integration and education policy.

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The Effect of the Recent Influx of Refugees on Germany’s Economy
Tobias Hentze / Galina Kolev IW-Trends No. 4 16. January 2017

Tobias Hentze / Galina Kolev: Gesamtwirtschaftliche Effekte der Flüchtlingsmigration in Deutschland

IW-Trends

German Economic Institute (IW) German Economic Institute (IW)

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Markus Demary / Tobias Hentze / Jasmina Kirchhoff / Michael Voigtländer IW-Policy Paper No. 2 22. January 2025

An agenda for more private investment

Germany has a massive lack of investment, which dampens productivity, thereby reducing economic growth and increasingly endangering prosperity.

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Michael Grömling IW-Report No. 2 21. January 2025

Effects of the new US administration on companies in Germany

According to the latest economic survey by the Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (German Economic Institute), companies in Germany primarily expect competitive disadvantages as well as trade and sales restrictions in the event of a confrontational economic ...

IW

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