The Influence of Immigration on Demographic Developments in Germany

Up-to-date projections of population development are relevant for many economic issues. Reflecting this, the Cologne Institute for Economic Research’s stochastic population forecast incorporates Germany’s record immigration in 2015 and the likelihood of high net immigration of some 850,000 in 2016. Based on these assumptions, by 2035 the population can be expected to have reached a total of 83.1 million, an increase of around 1.2 million. In the long run net immigration will fall again to 218,000 persons. However, this population increase will not prevent the ageing of German society, and the challenges of demographic transition – in the labour market and the social security systems, for example – will remain acute.