IW-Forschungsgruppe Konjunktur German Economic Institute
IW Forecast for Germany Autumn 2011
Germany’s growth will slow markedly. In spite of the resurgence of financial market problems, a recession seems, nevertheless, improbable. Real GDP will increase by 3 percent in 2011. In 2012, German exports will increase only moderately and dampen corporate investment. Because of the ongoing positive labor market private consumption will continue to buttress the business cycle. In 2012, the German economy will merely grow by 1 ¼ percent. Despite the weakening of the economy there will be more than 41 million employees. The number of registered unemployed will sink to 2.8 million on average. With a deficit of 7 billion euro and a deficit ratio of ½ percent of the GDP the national budget will almost be balanced.
The Productivity Effects of Capital Formation in Germany
Despite broad-based digitalisation, productivity advances in Germany in recent years have been considerably lower than in previous decades. This paper conducts a growth accounting which points to steeply declining stimuli from technical progress and especially ...
Jürgen Matthes IW-Policy Paper No. 1 25. February 2022
Stability instead of government overreach
Contrary to what the German government seems to be aiming for, a reform of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) is necessary. The debt reduction rule forces highly indebted euro countries to reduce their debt too quickly and too damagingly for growth.
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