The Impact of the Demographic Transition on the Office Real Estate Market in Germany

From studies of white-collar employment and demographic trends conducted by the German Economic Institute (IW), it is possible to derive the demographic outlook for the office market up to 2035. In Germany as a whole, a short-term increase in demand for office space is expected to be followed by stagnation. However, in major cities demand will continue to rise. Especially strong growth – of between 12 and 18 per cent, depending on the scenario adopted – can be expected for Munich and Berlin, while the rates forecast for Düsseldorf, Hamburg and Frankfurt am Main up to 2035 are between 6 and 9 per cent. However, the demographic outlook for the office market is generally poorer than for residential property, since the number of economically active people is rising more slowly than the total population. Moreover, in the long run, investors must be aware of possible shifts in demand caused by factors such as digitalisation. Particularly in view of the increasing shortage of skilled labour, there is a real risk of today's office jobs being lost to automation or relocated abroad.