IW Economic Forecast Autumn 2018

Grömling Michael

IW-Trends No. 3 17. September 2018 IW Research Group Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast Descending Economic Expectations: IW Economic Forecast Autumn 2018

The global economy is not immune to a resurgence of protectionism. Trade in goods in particular has stagnated in the year to date while global investment growth is slowing again. Economic activity is being further hobbled by institutional problems in a number of emerging economies and by rising energy prices. This has put some expectations of growth on a downward trajectory, albeit with no anticipation of a crash landing.

IW-Trends No. 3 17. September 2018 IW Research Group Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast

Descending Economic Expectations: IW Economic Forecast Autumn 2018

IW-Trends

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The global economy is not immune to a resurgence of protectionism. Trade in goods in particular has stagnated in the year to date while global investment growth is slowing again. Economic activity is being further hobbled by institutional problems in a number of emerging economies and by rising energy prices. This has put some expectations of growth on a downward trajectory, albeit with no anticipation of a crash landing.

Contacts

The subdued global environment has slowed down exports and industrial production in Germany as well, significantly reducing expectations for them in the 2018 and 2019 forecast period. As a result, investment activity in Germany is also losing momentum. On the other hand, persistently robust private and public consumption are keeping the risk of stagnation at bay. Nevertheless, the slight slowdown in the labour market and a steeper rise in consumer prices are making themselves felt. While real gross domestic product is expected to grow by 1.8 per cent in 2018, next year economic growth will amount to only 1.4 per cent. This is enough to keep unemployment falling. With lower interest obligations and employment-driven revenue growth, the public sector budget will continue untroubled.

IW-Trends No. 3 17. September 2018 IW Research Group Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast

IW Research Group Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast: Descending Economic Expectations – IW Economic Forecast Autumn 2018

IW-Trends

Download PDF

Back to overview

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