IW Research Group Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast IW-Trends No. 3 17. September 2018 Descending Economic Expectations: IW Economic Forecast Autumn 2018
The global economy is not immune to a resurgence of protectionism. Trade in goods in particular has stagnated in the year to date while global investment growth is slowing again. Economic activity is being further hobbled by institutional problems in a number of emerging economies and by rising energy prices. This has put some expectations of growth on a downward trajectory, albeit with no anticipation of a crash landing.
IW Research Group Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast German Economic Institute (IW)
The global economy is not immune to a resurgence of protectionism. Trade in goods in particular has stagnated in the year to date while global investment growth is slowing again. Economic activity is being further hobbled by institutional problems in a number of emerging economies and by rising energy prices. This has put some expectations of growth on a downward trajectory, albeit with no anticipation of a crash landing.
The subdued global environment has slowed down exports and industrial production in Germany as well, significantly reducing expectations for them in the 2018 and 2019 forecast period. As a result, investment activity in Germany is also losing momentum. On the other hand, persistently robust private and public consumption are keeping the risk of stagnation at bay. Nevertheless, the slight slowdown in the labour market and a steeper rise in consumer prices are making themselves felt. While real gross domestic product is expected to grow by 1.8 per cent in 2018, next year economic growth will amount to only 1.4 per cent. This is enough to keep unemployment falling. With lower interest obligations and employment-driven revenue growth, the public sector budget will continue untroubled.
Hubertus Bardt / Michael Grömling in Advances in Resilient and Sustainable Transport External Publication 30. March 2023
Supply Chains, Cost and Investments in Times of Multiple Crises
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has significantly clouded the economic outlook in Germany and worsened the investment climate. The investment gap created in the wake of the Covid pandemic will not be closed for the time being.
Hubertus Bardt / Michael Grömling in Advances in Resilient and Sustainable Transport IW
IW-Cooperationcluster Makroökonomie and Konjunktur IW-Report No. 67 14. December 2022
The IW Economic Forecast Winter 2022: The Business Cycle in the Grey Zone
The geopolitical situation, the global energy and commodity bottlenecks and the resulting high inflation have considerably dimmed the economic outlook across the world. A slowdown in China and in the advanced economies is hampering global growth, with the ...
IW-Cooperationcluster Makroökonomie and Konjunktur IW
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