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IW-Forschungsgruppe Konjunktur IW-Trends No. 3 25. September 2013 Lift: But Little Tailwind

IW Economic Forecast, Autumn 2013

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But Little Tailwind
IW-Forschungsgruppe Konjunktur IW-Trends No. 3 25. September 2013

Lift: But Little Tailwind

IW-Trends

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German Economic Institute German Economic Institute

IW Economic Forecast, Autumn 2013

The world economy had been losing its momentum lately. The sovereign debt and banking crises led to recession in Europe while the world’s aspiring economies have been slowing markedly. Knock-on effects from the advanced economies, structural problems and looming capital outflows can explain the latter. However, global prospects have brightened again. Europe has turned the corner and the emerging economies are once more picking up speed. However, the world economy will continue to lack its previous momentum. With Germany’s price competitiveness deteriorating, foreign trade looks set to enjoy only a modest improvement. Overall, investment activity in this country is picking up but will falter again if a favourable tax policy is not maintained. The strong labour market should continue to enliven consumption, but this will remain more of a stabilizing factor than a stimulant. With these givens, the German economy can be expected to grow by around ½ per cent in 2013, with expansion passing the 1 ½ per cent mark in 2014. At 2.86 million, the average annual unemployment rate will be some 6 ½ per cent in 2014. This year the national budget will show a slight deficit but should next year achieve a surplus just short of ½ per cent of GDP.

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But Little Tailwind
IW-Forschungsgruppe Konjunktur IW-Trends No. 3 25. September 2013

IW-Forschungsgruppe Konjunktur: Auftrieb mit wenig Rückenwind – IW-Konjunkturprognose Herbst 2013

IW-Trends

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German Economic Institute German Economic Institute

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The Productivity Effects of Capital Formation in Germany
Michael Grömling IW-Trends No. 2 9. May 2022

The Productivity Effects of Capital Formation in Germany

Despite broad-based digitalisation, productivity advances in Germany in recent years have been considerably lower than in previous decades. This paper conducts a growth accounting which points to steeply declining stimuli from technical progress and especially ...

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Jürgen Matthes IW-Policy Paper No. 1 25. February 2022

Stability instead of government overreach

Contrary to what the German government seems to be aiming for, a reform of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) is necessary. The debt reduction rule forces highly indebted euro countries to reduce their debt too quickly and too damagingly for growth.

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