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Hubertus Bardt / Michael Hüther IW-Policy Paper No. 4 17. February 2021 From Lockdown to the New Normal

For almost a year, German society and economy have been significantly constrained by the health threat posed by the Covid pandemic and the restrictions it has triggered. The consequences to date have amounted to one of the most severe economic crises in the history of the Federal Republic, significant educational shortcomings and increasing social problems. The rapid development of vaccines now raises the hope of pushing back the virus and gradually returning to normal life.

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From Lockdown to the New Normal
Hubertus Bardt / Michael Hüther IW-Policy Paper No. 4 17. February 2021

From Lockdown to the New Normal

IW-Policy Paper

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German Economic Institute (IW) German Economic Institute (IW)

For almost a year, German society and economy have been significantly constrained by the health threat posed by the Covid pandemic and the restrictions it has triggered. The consequences to date have amounted to one of the most severe economic crises in the history of the Federal Republic, significant educational shortcomings and increasing social problems. The rapid development of vaccines now raises the hope of pushing back the virus and gradually returning to normal life.

However, even with successful vaccinations, the virus is not expected to disappear. It seems likely that the combination of open borders in Europe and beyond along with a lack of universal vaccination coverage will require permanent management of residual Covid risks. This applies particularly if the focus is placed on strict contact restrictions, which can only ever be incomplete and temporary, and if the vaccination rates are too low.

The key to fighting the pandemic is to balance the cost of control against the damage of any remaining risk. It is doubtful that the marginal solution of complete risk elimination through temporary but harsh measures will lead to long-term protection against infection rates and thus be the economically superior option. Conversely, capacities to safely manage recurrent corona cases need to be strengthened.

Both during the resumption of public life when risks are declining and during the subsequent phase of long-term protection, vaccination, extensive testing, and better traceability of cases are needed, to respond quickly to impending outbreaks. The crucial importance of these two elements, however, was already clear at the beginning of the pandemic.

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From Lockdown to the New Normal
Hubertus Bardt / Michael Hüther IW-Policy Paper No. 4 17. February 2021

Hubertus Bardt / Michael Hüther: Aus dem Lockdown ins neue Normal

IW-Policy Paper

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German Economic Institute (IW) German Economic Institute (IW)

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Hubertus Bardt / Klaus-Heiner Röhl / Christian Rusche in The Economists' Voice External Publication 21. June 2022

Subsidizing Semiconductor Production for a Strategically Autonomous European Union?

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the vulnerability of international supply chains and the dependency of the economy of the European Union (EU) on goods from non-EU countries. The scarcity of microchips that has persisted since the COVID lockdowns has laid ...

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Johannes Ewald / Vanessa Hünnemeyer / Hanno Kempermann IW-Trends No. 2 6. June 2022

How Has the Covid19 Pandemic Changed Germany's Regions? – Results of the IW Regional Ranking 2022

Over the past two years the Covid19 pandemic has presented the German economy with major challenges, with the personal services sector just as severely affected as manufacturing.

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