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IW-Forschungsgruppe Gesamtwirtschaftliche Analysen und Konjunktur IW-Trends No. 2 23. April 2019 Uncertainty Weakens the Economy: IW Economic Forecast and IW Economic Survey Spring 2019

Since the summer of 2018 the German economy has only been treading water. The reasons for this are the slowdown in world trade caused by protectionism and the adjustment burdens in the automotive sector, which have affected the production and export activity of German manufacturing.

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IW Economic Forecast and IW Economic Survey Spring 2019
IW-Forschungsgruppe Gesamtwirtschaftliche Analysen und Konjunktur IW-Trends No. 2 23. April 2019

Uncertainty Weakens the Economy: IW Economic Forecast and IW Economic Survey Spring 2019

IW-Trends

German Economic Institute (IW) German Economic Institute (IW)

Since the summer of 2018 the German economy has only been treading water. The reasons for this are the slowdown in world trade caused by protectionism and the adjustment burdens in the automotive sector, which have affected the production and export activity of German manufacturing.

The economy is expected to regain its footing in the first half of 2019, but will proceed at a very subdued pace. With weakened growth in world trade and global investment activity suffering from geopolitical uncertainties, German export expectations remain moderate. They are sufficient to keep corporate investment on its upward trend – but at a snail’s pace. The German economy will continue to be stimulated by investments in construction and by a number of consumer-related service industries. Though expanding employment will still drive consumer spending, the employment outlook for German companies has cooled. The average number of people in employment will rise to 45.5 million by 2020, when the number of jobless will be just over 2 million, corresponding to an unemployment rate of 4.5 per cent. Real GDP will grow by slightly less than 0.7 per cent in 2019 and by just over 1.5 per cent next year, reflecting a considerably higher number of working days. Inflation in the forecast period is expected to exceed 1.5 per cent by a small margin. Despite a significant increase in government spending, public finances will be in surplus.

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IW Economic Forecast and IW Economic Survey Spring 2019
IW-Forschungsgruppe Gesamtwirtschaftliche Analysen und Konjunktur IW-Trends No. 2 23. April 2019

IW-Forschungsgruppe Gesamtwirtschaftliche Analysen und Konjunktur: Verunsicherung schwächt die Konjunktur – IW-Konjunkturprognose und Konjunkturumfrage Frühjahr 2019

IW-Trends

German Economic Institute (IW) German Economic Institute (IW)

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Determinants of personnel planning in Germany
Michael Grömling / Stefanie Seele IW-Report No. 27 21. May 2024

Determinants of personnel planning in Germany

The German labor market has been growing since 2005. The dip in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic between 2020 and 2022 is an exception, as the German labor market has reached a record level of 45.9 million people in employment by 2023.

IW

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Jürgen Matthes in Intereconomics External Publication 9. April 2024

China’s Trade Surplus – Implications for the World and for Europe

China’s merchandise trade surplus has reached an all-time high and is likely to rise further. A key driver appears to be a policy push to further bolster Chinese domestic manufacturing production, implying the danger of significant overcapacities.

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