After Brexit: An initial assessment of the economic and political consequences for the UK

While the country has failed to gain much financial leeway, new trade agreements with third countries have by no means compensated for the disadvantages in trade policy brought about by Brexit. In 2021 – the year in which the single market rules were superseded by the terms of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement – the adverse effects on the exchange of goods between the two economic areas became clear. British imports from the EU-27 in particular have suffered. Nor has a “Singapore on the Thames” emerged, despite signs that regulations for companies in the two economic areas are beginning to diverge. Further, far-reaching deregulation would also prove less straightforward than many claim, showing the limits to the Brexiteers’ intention to “take back control”. The Northern Ireland Protocol has only partially fulfilled the hopes placed in it and new border controls in the Irish Sea have led to political tension in the province. Moreover, trade between mainland Britain and Northern Ireland is clearly subject to diversion effects: while the exchange of goods between Northern Ireland and the Republic has grown substantially, there has been a slowdown in commerce between Northern Ireland and the British mainland.