1. Home
  2. Press
  3. Press Releases
  4. Hardly any positive signs
Show image in lightbox Hardly any positive signs
(© Photo: Dieter Schewig/iStock)
Share this article:

or copy the following link:

The link was added to your clipboard!

IW Business Cycle Traffic Light Press Release No. 74 14. December 2015

Hardly any positive signs

The economic outlook for Germany, the Eurozone and China looks rather grim according to the IW Business Cycle Traffic Light. Almost all of the important economic indicators have stagnated or experienced a setback in the fourth quarter of 2015. While things look a little better in the US, consumer confidence has decreased dramatically in all four regions.

Share this article:

or copy the following link:

The link was added to your clipboard!

Three reds, five yellows and only two green lights – that’s what the German economy looks like according to the IW Business Cycle Traffic Light. The rating system compares ten economic indicators, a green light denoting a positive development. In Germany, only consumption and PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) fare better than in previous months. At the same time, slow global growth and a struggling world economy have made production and incoming orders perform worse than before.

The state of the Chinese economy looks just as bleak. While data is available for only seven of the ten indicators, three out of these seven have experienced a deterioration: PMI, consumer confidence, and unemployment rate. “China continues to experience an economic slowdown”, says Michael Grömling, head of the IW Business Cycle research unit.

In a similar manner, only one of the indicators in the Eurozone has improved: consumption. The performance indicators for investment, exports and industrial production have not changed significantly throughout the past three months and are subsequently considered to be “yellow”, while the number of incoming orders has shrunk. The United States compare a little better, as the country’s unemployment rate has improved in the fourth quarter of 2015. Nonetheless, not only have PMI and consumer confidence deteriorated, but the total number of green indicators – when compared to the same quarter last year – has sunk from a seven to a mere three.

Share this article:

or copy the following link:

The link was added to your clipboard!

More on the topic

Read the article
Hubertus Bardt / Michael Grömling in Advances in Resilient and Sustainable Transport External Publication 30. March 2023

Supply Chains, Cost and Investments in Times of Multiple Crises

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has significantly clouded the economic outlook in Germany and worsened the investment climate. The investment gap created in the wake of the Covid pandemic will not be closed for the time being.

IW

Read the article
IW-Cooperationcluster Makroökonomie and Konjunktur IW-Report No. 67 14. December 2022

The IW Economic Forecast Winter 2022: The Business Cycle in the Grey Zone

The geopolitical situation, the global energy and commodity bottlenecks and the resulting high inflation have considerably dimmed the economic outlook across the world. A slowdown in China and in the advanced economies is hampering global growth, with the ...

IW

More about this topic

Content element with id 8880 Content element with id 9713