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Macroeconomics and the Business Cycle

The Macroeconomic Analysis and the Business Cycle Cluster focuses on short- to medium-term economic developments in the global economy as a whole and in Germany in particular. The 2008/2009 financial crisis, the Covid19 pandemic and current geopolitical conflicts clearly show that the business cycle is alive and well. Indeed, even modern economies can suffer violent ups and downs in production and employment, with boom and bust affecting different sectors and regions in very different ways. As a result of the Covid pandemic and the Russian war in Ukraine, the spectre of inflation is also back in our daily lives. In addition, structural adjustments in the current decade are affecting employment, value added, incomes and prices.

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Contact Persons

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Michael Grömling

Prof. Dr. Michael Grömling

Head of Macroeconomic and the Business Cycle Research Unit

Tel: +49 221 4981-776
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All news

383 results
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A new Indo-Pacific partner?
IW-Report No. 9 15. February 2024

Indonesia: A new Indo-Pacific partner?

Samina Sultan / Gero Kunath / Henrik Förster/ Jürgen Matthes

Indonesia will elect a new president on 14 February. After ten successful years in office, Joko Widodo is not allowed to run for office again. He has ushered in an era of reform in the country.

IW

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Data-based results on the effects of the German Supply Chain Act
IW-Report No. 8 8. February 2024

Due Diligence - Effect of Supply Chain regulation: Data-based results on the effects of the German Supply Chain Act

Galina Kolev-Schaefer / Adriana Neligan

After the agreement of the European Parliament and the Council of the EU in December 2023, a few formal steps remain to introduce the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD).

IW

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External Publication
Competition from China in the EU market for Germany’s manufacturing sector
External Publication 18. January 2024

Competition from China in the EU market for Germany’s manufacturing sector

Jürgen Matthes in The European Money and Finance Forum

China has continuously gained market shares in the EU import market since 2000. At the same time, Germany’s share in EU imports has declined since 2005. This divergence is particularly relevant for sophisticated manufacturing products in which Germany is specialized.

IW

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Effects of the Middle East conflict on the German economy
IW-Report No. 1 2. January 2024

Effects of the Middle East conflict on the German economy

Galina Kolev-Schaefer / Thomas Obst / Thomas Puls

Beyond the humanitarian crisis associated with the geopolitical conflict in Israel, which affects millions of human lives, the Middle East conflict also leaves lasting marks on economic activity not only in the affected region, but also in Germany and the world as a whole. This report discusses the various ways in which the conflict is impacting the German economy.

IW

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Consequences of Ukraine's accession to the EU for the budget and cohesion policy
IW-Report No. 63 11. December 2023

Fiscal aspects of an EU-enlargement

Berthold Busch / Samina Sultan

Following the European Commission's recommendation to open accession negotiations with Ukraine, the European Council will decide on this at its summit in December. This is a historic step that is of great geostrategic importance, particularly in light of the ongoing Russian war of aggression.

IW

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