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Macroeconomics and the Business Cycle

The Macroeconomic Analysis and the Business Cycle Cluster focuses on short- to medium-term economic developments in the global economy as a whole and in Germany in particular. The 2008/2009 financial crisis, the Covid19 pandemic and current geopolitical conflicts clearly show that the business cycle is alive and well. Indeed, even modern economies can suffer violent ups and downs in production and employment, with boom and bust affecting different sectors and regions in very different ways. As a result of the Covid pandemic and the Russian war in Ukraine, the spectre of inflation is also back in our daily lives. In addition, structural adjustments in the current decade are affecting employment, value added, incomes and prices.

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Contact Persons

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Michael Grömling

Prof. Dr. Michael Grömling

Head of Macroeconomic and the Business Cycle Research Unit

Tel: +49 221 4981-776
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External Publication
Dependency of the German and Italian Industry on China Intermediate Inputs
External Publication 17. April 2024

Not so Different?: Dependency of the German and Italian Industry on China Intermediate Inputs

Samina Sultan at IEP@BU Policy Brief

On average the German and Italian industry display a very similar intermediate input dependence on China, whether accounting for domestic inputs or not.

IW

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External Publication
China’s Trade Surplus – Implications for the World and for Europe
External Publication 9. April 2024

China’s Trade Surplus – Implications for the World and for Europe

Jürgen Matthes in Intereconomics

China’s merchandise trade surplus has reached an all-time high and is likely to rise further. A key driver appears to be a policy push to further bolster Chinese domestic manufacturing production, implying the danger of significant overcapacities.

IW

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An anatomy of high German import dependencies on China
IW-Report No. 18 9. April 2024

Import side De-risking China in 2023

Jürgen Matthes

Despite certain changes, German import dependencies on China remained at a similar level overall in 2023 as in the previous year in the overall picture. This means that de-risking on the import side can only be recognised to a limited extent.

IW

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External Publication
Is the EU Fit for 55 and Beyond?
External Publication 8. April 2024

Is the EU Fit for 55 and Beyond?

Christian Rusche / Thilo Schaefer in Intereconomics

Ursula von der Leyen was elected President of the European Commission by the European Parliament in July 2019. She assumed office in November 2019 and unveiled the European Green Deal in December 2019 (European Commission, 2023a) as a focal point of European politics.

IW

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Institutional consequences of EU Enlargement
IW-Report No. 15 12. March 2024

Institutional consequences of EU Enlargement

Berthold Busch / Julian Sommer / Samina Sultan

At the latest since the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine and the decision to open accession talks with the country, the topic of enlargement has once again become much more important for the European Union (EU).

IW

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