The Macroeconomic Analysis and the Business Cycle Cluster focuses on short- to medium-term economic developments in the global economy as a whole and in Germany in particular. The 2008/2009 financial crisis, the Covid19 pandemic and current geopolitical conflicts clearly show that the business cycle is alive and well. Indeed, even modern economies can suffer violent ups and downs in production and employment, with boom and bust affecting different sectors and regions in very different ways. As a result of the Covid pandemic and the Russian war in Ukraine, the spectre of inflation is also back in our daily lives. In addition, structural adjustments in the current decade are affecting employment, value added, incomes and prices.
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Macroeconomics and the Business Cycle
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Prof. Dr. Michael Grömling
Head of Macroeconomic and the Business Cycle Research Unit
Tel: +49 221 4981-776 Mail: groemling@iwkoeln.deAll news
Not so Different?: Dependency of the German and Italian Industry on China Intermediate Inputs
On average the German and Italian industry display a very similar intermediate input dependence on China, whether accounting for domestic inputs or not.
Samina Sultan at IEP@BU Policy Brief IW
China’s Trade Surplus – Implications for the World and for Europe
China’s merchandise trade surplus has reached an all-time high and is likely to rise further. A key driver appears to be a policy push to further bolster Chinese domestic manufacturing production, implying the danger of significant overcapacities.
Jürgen Matthes in Intereconomics IW
Import side De-risking China in 2023
Despite certain changes, German import dependencies on China remained at a similar level overall in 2023 as in the previous year in the overall picture. This means that de-risking on the import side can only be recognised to a limited extent.
Jürgen Matthes IW
Is the EU Fit for 55 and Beyond?
Ursula von der Leyen was elected President of the European Commission by the European Parliament in July 2019. She assumed office in November 2019 and unveiled the European Green Deal in December 2019 (European Commission, 2023a) as a focal point of European politics.
Christian Rusche / Thilo Schaefer in Intereconomics IW
Institutional consequences of EU Enlargement
At the latest since the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine and the decision to open accession talks with the country, the topic of enlargement has once again become much more important for the European Union (EU).
Berthold Busch / Julian Sommer / Samina Sultan IW
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