The diversification of risks is an essential aspect for property investors. One possibility to reduce portfolio risks is the acquisition of international property. However, globalization has induced a convergence of business cycles so that the differences in real estate cycles are questionable. Moreover, the monetary integration in Europe has brought in line nominal short-term interest levels for European investors. In this study the co-movement of office and housing cycles is tested for European markets by using a factor analysis. The results show that office cycles are highly synchronized. Housing markets are by contrast less integrated. Especially markets with a low homeownership rate, like the German, Dutch and Swiss market, stand out. The monetary integration has only a minor impact on cycles for offices and for housing.
IW Research Group Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast IW-Trends No. 4 27. November 2017
Has the German Economy Reached its Limit?: Skilled Labour Shortages as a Brake on Growth
The German economy is performing significantly better than was expected in the first few months of this year. During the course of 2017, certain early fears – especially of a weakening of the global economy due to increasing protectionism – have proved ...
IW Research Group Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast IW
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