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Michael Hüther / Matthias Diermeier in Ernest Gnan / Christoph Schneider / Claudia Stowasser (Hg.) Schwerpunkt Außenwirtschaft 2021/2022 External Publication 4. July 2022 Globalisation under pressure?: How current megatrends shape the patters of international trade, capital flows and technology diffusion

Deglobalisation, digitalisation, decarbonisation, and demographic change have already left their mark on the global economy. In the future the multiple transformations that the international patterns of specialisation undergo are likely to accelerate as the four megatrends mature and unfold their true disruptive potential.

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How current megatrends shape the patters of international trade, capital flows and technology diffusion
Michael Hüther / Matthias Diermeier in Ernest Gnan / Christoph Schneider / Claudia Stowasser (Hg.) Schwerpunkt Außenwirtschaft 2021/2022 External Publication 4. July 2022

Globalisation under pressure?: How current megatrends shape the patters of international trade, capital flows and technology diffusion

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German Economic Institute (IW) German Economic Institute (IW)

Deglobalisation, digitalisation, decarbonisation, and demographic change have already left their mark on the global economy. In the future the multiple transformations that the international patterns of specialisation undergo are likely to accelerate as the four megatrends mature and unfold their true disruptive potential.

Whereas deglobalisation operates through the pandemic as well as through the global power competition – currently through the Russian invasion in Ukraine – triggering decoupling as well as supply chain reorganisation, digitalisation is likely to result in new economies of scale in investment capital but also in a further divergence of capital flows into the direction of the global North. The politically initiated decarbonisation clearly intents to steer capital flows into green investment projects while incentivizing technological innovations. Finally, the demographic change affects the relationship between interest and growth rates and shapes patterns of migration as well as of urbanisation. The sheer population density as reflected in the growth of mega cities does not necessarily constitute an advantage in international competition anymore. Superstar cities will rather be founded on the ground of very specific preconditions that attract people with a highly specialised human capital formation

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How current megatrends shape the patters of international trade, capital flows and technology diffusion
Michael Hüther / Matthias Diermeier in Ernest Gnan / Christoph Schneider / Claudia Stowasser (Hg.) Schwerpunkt Außenwirtschaft 2021/2022 External Publication 4. July 2022

Globalisation under pressure?: How current megatrends shape the patters of international trade, capital flows and technology diffusion

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German Economic Institute (IW) German Economic Institute (IW)

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