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IW-Forschungsgruppe Konjunktur IW-Trends No. 1 25. March 2014 Modest Recovery in a Risky Global Environment

The IW Economic Forecast Spring 2014

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Modest Recovery in a Risky Global Environment
IW-Forschungsgruppe Konjunktur IW-Trends No. 1 25. March 2014

Modest Recovery in a Risky Global Environment

IW-Trends

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German Economic Institute German Economic Institute

The IW Economic Forecast Spring 2014

The world economy regained momentum in the course of 2013. The slow recovery in eco-nomic activity in the Eurozone will continue and in the USA the economy will pick up speed. The emerging nations have benefited from the reduced political and economic un-certainty in the industrialised countries but unsolved issues of political governance and structural problems have weakened their own growth drivers considerably. With the global economy buoyant, last year also saw the beginnings of economic recovery in Germany, where real GDP is set to grow by more than 1 ¾ per cent in 2014 and by almost 2 per cent next year. This upswing affects all business sectors and is driven by both consumption and investment. Despite a positive trend in exports, foreign trade will contribute little to growth. Employment will continue to expand in Germany with a total of some 640,000 additional jobs being created in 2014 and 2015. However, unemployment will decline by a mere 130,000 to an annual average of something over 2.8 million in 2015. Despite higher government spending, the public sector will achieve modest budget surpluses this year and next. This forecast is based on the assumption that neither the problems with the financial markets and sovereign debt in Europe nor the political situation in a number of emerging countries create major uncertainties or additional burdens.

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Modest Recovery in a Risky Global Environment
IW-Forschungsgruppe Konjunktur IW-Trends No. 1 25. March 2014

IW-Forschungsgruppe Konjunktur: Überschaubare Erholung in einem risikoreichen globalen Umfeld – IW-Konjunkturprognose Frühjahr 2014

IW-Trends

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German Economic Institute German Economic Institute

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The Productivity Effects of Capital Formation in Germany
Michael Grömling IW-Trends No. 2 9. May 2022

The Productivity Effects of Capital Formation in Germany

Despite broad-based digitalisation, productivity advances in Germany in recent years have been considerably lower than in previous decades. This paper conducts a growth accounting which points to steeply declining stimuli from technical progress and especially ...

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Jürgen Matthes IW-Policy Paper No. 1 25. February 2022

Stability instead of government overreach

Contrary to what the German government seems to be aiming for, a reform of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) is necessary. The debt reduction rule forces highly indebted euro countries to reduce their debt too quickly and too damagingly for growth.

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