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US presidential election IW News 9. November 2016

A political earthquake

The US has made its choice – and opted for unpredictability rather than continuity. However, it is still completely uncertain whether Donald Trump can and will do what he promised during the election campaign.

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Brexit, and now Donald Trump. In January, the new Republican President of the United States will move into the White House. The whole world looks astonished and frightened at what is happening in the US. With their choice, US citizens decide not only about their own destiny, but also about that of billions of people around the world.

If Trump sticks to what he announced during the election campaign, he will turn the whole US policy inside out. He intends to recall the participation of the US in the Paris climate agreement - for he believes that global warming is an invention of the Chinese. Instead, he wants to create new jobs in coal mining. He intends to renegotiate free trade agreements to restore jobs in the USA, which manufacturing firms shifted to other production sites worldwide. The free trade agreement TTIP could be dead. He wants to redefine the role of the US in global geopolitics and to involve other countries in US military expenditures.

The consequences can hardly be foreseen. When the next deep recession in the US pulls in, it will spread all over the world. Indeed, the US economy could benefit from Trump's planned tax reliefs – if they could be financed. With a government debt that lies already well above the country's annual economic output, the US can hardly afford to invest billions in tax cuts. The renegotiation of free trade agreements promises little - especially since the other participating states, Mexico and Canada in the case of NAFTA, will have their say. A one-sided termination would not be a solution to the problems of the US - on the contrary, the reintroduction of trade barriers will cost jobs and drive up prices for consumers. Trumps intentions are not a blessing to the economy.

Trumps election victory is a warning signal – a warning signal for a change in values and ideals, a warning signal for the spread of anti-globalization tendencies, a warning signal that new unconventional ideas are being sought. The trembling part is not finished - it has just began.

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