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Thomas Obst

Dr. Thomas Obst

Senior Economist

Tel: +49 30 27877-135
  • Since 2019 at the IW
  • Since 2021 Economist for Foreign Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Modeling in the Competence Area International Economic Order and Business Cycle
  • Since 2019 Personal Assistant to the Director at the Institute of the German Economy
  • Since 2018 Lectureship at the University of Siegen on Special Aspects of Plural Macroeconomics
  • 2016-2019 Research Assistant (PostDoc) at the Chair of Economics at the Viadrina University in Frankfurt (Oder), Germany
  • 2013-2016 PhD in Economics at the University of Greenwich, London on the topic "The interaction of income distribution and economic growth in the context of European Imbalances".
  • 2011-2013 Master's degree in International Economics at the Berlin School of Economics and Law.
  • Research interests: International macroeconomics and economic governance, growth and distribution, business cycles, economic policy

IW Publications

Koenen, Michelle / Kunath, Gero / Obst, Thomas, 2022, Europa an der Schwelle zur Rezession?, IW-Report, Nr. 40, Berlin
Zur Studie

Kolev, Galina / Obst, Thomas, 2022, Global value chains of the EU member states. Policy options in the current debate, IW-Report, Nr. 4, Köln / Berlin
Zur Studie

Bardt, Hubertus / Demary, Markus / Grömling, Michael / Hentze, Tobias / Hüther, Michael / Obst, Thomas / Pimpertz, Jochen / Schaefer, Thilo / Schäfer, Holger, 2021, IW-Konjunkturprognose Winter 2021. Produktionsstörungen, Preiseffekte und Pandemie-Politik, in: IW-Trends, 48. Jg., Nr. 4, Köln / Berlin
Zur Studie

Diermeier, Matthias / Hüther, Michael / Obst, Thomas, 2021, Wunsch und Wirklichkeit: Kaum Ausgabenspielräume in der neuen Legislaturperiode. Zwischen Schuldenbremse und Steuererhöhungen, IW-Report, Nr. 33, Köln / Berlin
Zur Studie

Bardt, Hubertus / Diermeier, Matthias / Grömling, Michael / Hüther, Michael / Obst, Thomas, 2021, Lieferengpässe und Preisentwicklungen bei Rohstoffen und Vorleistungen. Corona Echo Effekte oder ‚here to stay’?, IW-Report, Nr. 27, Köln / Berlin
Zur Studie

Obst, Thomas / Schläger, Dan, 2021, Kosten-Nutzen Überlegungen zu Lockdowns – was übersehen wir?. Kosten-Nutzen Überlegungen zu Lockdowns, IW-Kurzbericht, Nr. 33, Berlin
Zur Studie

Hüther, Michael / Jung, Markos / Obst, Thomas, 2021, Chancen für Wachstum und Konsolidierung. Arbeitskräftepotenziale der deutschen Wirtschaft, IW-Policy Paper, Nr. 10, Köln
Zur Studie

External Publications

Obst, Thomas, 2021, Dynamic version of Okun’s law in the EU15 countries. The role of delays in the unemployment‐output nexus, in: Scottish Journal of Political Economy
Zur Studie

Obst, T., Onaran, O. and Nikolaidi, M. (2019): The effects of income distribution and fiscal policy on growth, investment and the budget balance: the case of Europe. Cambridge Journal of Economics, (in Veröffentlichung).

Onaran, O., Obst, T. (2016): Wage-led growth in the EU15 member-states. The effects of income distribution on growth, investment, trade balance and inflation. In: Cambridge Journal of Economics 40 (6), 1517–1551.

Stadtmann, G., Obst, T. (2017): Fiskalpolitik und Fiskalmultiplikator, Beitrag, in: Das Wirtschaftsstudium 46 (8-9), 979–983.

                

More from Dr. Thomas Obst

Read study
Economic Impact of the Corona Pandemic and the Ukraine War
IW-Report No. 40 11. August 2022

Europe on the brink of recession?

Michelle Koenen / Gero Kunath / Thomas Obst

The European Union is facing one of its biggest crises since the financial crisis of 2008. The pandemic started in 2020 and led to a historical economic downturn in the second quarter of that year.

IW

Read study
Policy options in the current debate
IW-Report No. 4 21. January 2022

Global value chains of the EU member states: Policy options in the current debate

Galina Kolev / Thomas Obst

In 2020, EU companies imported intermediate products worth 2.4 trillion euros, which made up more than half of total merchandise imports of the EU. Compared to the pre-crisis year 2019, imports of intermediates decreased by 13 percent, partly driven by the lower fuel prices.

IW

Read study
The role of delays in the unemployment‐output nexus
External Publication 17. December 2021

Dynamic version of Okun’s law in the EU15 countries: The role of delays in the unemployment‐output nexus

Thomas Obst in Scottish Journal of Political Economy

This paper estimates Okun's law in the EU15 countries between 1980 and 2018. It employs different versions with a focus on the dynamic part of the short-run relationship.

IW

Read study
Disrupted Production, Price Rises and Pandemic Policies
IW-Trends No. 4 29. November 2021

IW Economic Forecast Winter 2021: Disrupted Production, Price Rises and Pandemic Policies

IW-Forschungsgruppe Gesamtwirtschaftliche Analysen und Konjunktur

In the course of 2021 Germany’s economic recovery has once again perceptibly lost momentum. After the strain brought about at the beginning of the year by the lockdown for the second and third waves of the Covid19 pandemic, manufacturing and construction companies are now struggling with a shortage of materials, while higher prices for fossil fuels are imposing an additional burden.

IW

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Hardly any scope for public spending in the new legislative period
IW-Report No. 33 3. September 2021

Desire and reality: Hardly any scope for public spending in the new legislative period

Matthias Diermeier / Michael Hüther / Thomas Obst

The 2021 election campaign for the German Bundestag reveals various demands on the federal budget over the next years. In the coming legislative period, for example, the federal budget may have to finance the "mothers' pension", take over the EEG levy, compensate for an increase in the social security contribution rate above the predefined threshold of 40 per cent, forego the revenues from the remaining "solidarity surcharge" and shoulder a higher defence budget. Some potential coalition partners, however, reject a reform of the debt brake and at the same time even promise significant tax cuts.

IW

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Supply bottlenecks and price developments for raw materials and inputs
IW-Report No. 27 9. August 2021

Supply bottlenecks and price developments for raw materials and inputs

Hubertus Bardt / Matthias Diermeier / Michael Grömling / Michael Hüther / Thomas Obst

Having experienced strict economic lockdowns, the post-pandemic period various sectors report severe supply side bottlenecks and price increases for intermediate goods.

IW

Read study
Cost-benefit considerations of lockdowns – what are we missing?
IW-Kurzbericht No. 33 29. May 2021

Cost-benefit considerations of lockdowns – what are we missing?

Thomas Obst / Dan Schläger

A cross-country comparison shows similar behavioural adaptations of individuals despite different degrees of stringency of the respective lockdown in place. In Germany, during the first lockdown in spring 2020 mobility fell by 45 percent, while in Sweden it also decreased by 27 percent during the same period. A comprehensive cost-benefit analysis is crucial to better evaluate the efficacy of lockdowns and implied trade-offs.

IW

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Opportunities for Growth and Consolidation
IW-Policy Paper No. 10 10. May 2021

Workforce potential of the German economy

Michael Hüther / Markos Jung / Thomas Obst

Germany’s labour market faces substantial challenges caused by demographic change in the next decade. Looking back over the last 10 years we observe a key role regarding of a successful labour market integration leading to higher employment rates and fostering economic growth.

IW

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Investment, Human Capital and Growth Effects of Public Spending
IW-Policy Paper No. 2 3. February 2021

Investment, Human Capital and Growth Effects of Public Spending

Martin Beznoska / Björn Kauder / Thomas Obst

Unlike public sector consumption, public investment is often regarded as contributing to growth. Yet while spending on "intangible" goods such as education does not count as investment, even though it is potentially growth-enhancing, expenditure with little to no effect on growth often does.

IW

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Debt Risks Along the Silk Road
External Publication 27. November 2020

The Chinese Nightmare: Debt Risks Along the Silk Road

Matthias Diermeier / Florian Güldner /Thomas Obst in In Brief

China has paid dearly for its geopolitical rise. The Corona crisis is the latest example of the risks involved with massive investment on the Silk Road. Not only are many countries caught in a Chinese debt trap, China itself needs a strategy for managing non-performing loans amid the crisis. Loan defaults on the Silk Road could jeopardise the Chinese mega-project.

IW

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