Since 2021 Senior Economist for Foreign Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Modeling in the International Economic Policy, Financial and Real Estate Markets Research Unit
Since 2019 Personal Assistant to the Director at the Institute of the German Economy
Since 2018 Lectureship at the University of Siegen on Special Aspects of Plural Macroeconomics
2016-2019 Research Assistant (PostDoc) at the Chair of Economics at the Viadrina University in Frankfurt (Oder), Germany
2013-2016 PhD in Economics at the University of Greenwich, London on the topic "The interaction of income distribution and economic growth in the context of European Imbalances".
2011-2013 Master's degree in International Economics at the Berlin School of Economics and Law.
Since 2021 Lectureship in Macroeconomics at the University of Applied Sciences in Pforzheim
Research interests: International macroeconomics and economic governance, growth and distribution, business cycles, economic policy
IW Publications
Obst, Thomas / Kolev-Schaefer, Galina, 2025, Weltwirtschaft: trügerische Stabilität, IW-Report, Nr. 65, Berlin / Köln Zur Studie
Obst, Thomas / Röhl, Klaus-Heiner, 2025, Unternehmensinsolvenzen steigen kräftig. Grund zur Sorge oder Normalisierung nach Pandemiejahren?, IW-Report, Nr. 12, Berlin Zur Studie
Hüther, Michael / Obst, Thomas / Pimpertz, Jochen, 2025, Steigende Sozialversicherungsbeiträge belasten die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit. Investitionen und Wirtschaftswachstum mobilisieren statt belasten, IW-Policy Paper, Nr. 3, Köln / Berlin Zur Studie
Obst, Thomas / Matthes, Jürgen / Sultan, Samina, 2024, What if Trump is re-elected? Trade policy implications, IW-Report, Nr. 14, Berlin / Köln Zur Studie
Obst, Thomas / Stockhausen, Maximilian, 2024, Makroökonomische Analyse von Lohn-Preis-Spiralen. Risiken von Zweitrundeneffekten in der gegenwärtigen Hochinflationsphase, IW-Analyse, Nr. 155, Berlin / Köln Zur Studie
Kolev-Schaefer, Galina / Obst, Thomas / Puls, Thomas, 2024, Auswirkungen des Nahostkonflikts auf die deutsche Wirtschaft, IW-Report, Nr. 1, Köln / Berlin Zur Studie
Obst, Thomas / Sultan, Samina, 2023, Polen vor der Wahl – Wirtschaftsmodell im Wandel. Analyse des wirtschaftlichen Aufstiegs und der künftigen Herausforderungen, IW-Report, Nr. 51, Berlin / Köln Zur Studie
Bardt, Hubertus/ Demary, Markus / Grömling, Michael / Hüther, Michael / Kauder, Björn / Obst, Thomas / Puls, Thomas / Schaefer, Thilo / Schäfer, Holger, 2022, IW-Konjunkturprognose Winter 2022. Konjunktur in der Grauzone, IW-Report, Nr. 67, Berlin / Köln Zur Studie
Grömling, Michael / Koenen, Michelle / Kunath, Gero / Obst, Thomas / Parthie, Sandra, 2022, AIECE General Report Autumn 2022 Part I, IW-Report, Nr. 65, Köln / Berlin / Brüssel Zur Studie
Kunath, Gero / Matthes, Jürgen / Obst, Thomas, 2022, Biden’s economic agenda risks mid-term elections. An analysis of Biden’s economic agenda and its effects on the American econo-my, IW-Report, Nr. 59, Köln / Berlin Zur Studie
Koenen, Michelle / Kunath, Gero / Obst, Thomas, 2022, Europa an der Schwelle zur Rezession?, IW-Report, Nr. 40, Berlin Zur Studie
Kolev, Galina / Obst, Thomas, 2022, Global value chains of the EU member states. Policy options in the current debate, IW-Report, Nr. 4, Köln / Berlin Zur Studie
Bardt, Hubertus / Demary, Markus / Grömling, Michael / Hentze, Tobias / Hüther, Michael / Obst, Thomas / Pimpertz, Jochen / Schaefer, Thilo / Schäfer, Holger, 2021, IW-Konjunkturprognose Winter 2021. Produktionsstörungen, Preiseffekte und Pandemie-Politik, in: IW-Trends, 48. Jg., Nr. 4, Köln / Berlin Zur Studie
Diermeier, Matthias / Hüther, Michael / Obst, Thomas, 2021, Wunsch und Wirklichkeit: Kaum Ausgabenspielräume in der neuen Legislaturperiode. Zwischen Schuldenbremse und Steuererhöhungen, IW-Report, Nr. 33, Köln / Berlin Zur Studie
Bardt, Hubertus / Diermeier, Matthias / Grömling, Michael / Hüther, Michael / Obst, Thomas, 2021, Lieferengpässe und Preisentwicklungen bei Rohstoffen und Vorleistungen. Corona Echo Effekte oder ‚here to stay’?, IW-Report, Nr. 27, Köln / Berlin Zur Studie
Obst, Thomas / Schläger, Dan, 2021, Kosten-Nutzen Überlegungen zu Lockdowns – was übersehen wir?. Kosten-Nutzen Überlegungen zu Lockdowns, IW-Kurzbericht, Nr. 33, Berlin Zur Studie
Hüther, Michael / Jung, Markos / Obst, Thomas, 2021, Chancen für Wachstum und Konsolidierung. Arbeitskräftepotenziale der deutschen Wirtschaft, IW-Policy Paper, Nr. 10, Köln Zur Studie
External Publications
Fernandes, Carlândia / Vasconcelos, Marcos Roberto / Silva Cunha, Marina / Obst, Thomas, 2025, The relationship between tax structures and income inequality, in: Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad Zur Studie
Obst, Thomas, 2023, Deindustrialization in Europe – Time for a new Economic Model?, in: Institute of International Relations, National University of La Plata, Argentina, https://www.iri.edu.ar/index.php/2023/09/26/deindustrialization-in-europe-time-for-a-new-economic-model-por-thomas-obst/ Zur Studie
Matthes, Jürgen / Grömling, Michael / Demary, Markus / Kauder, Björn / Busch, Berthold / Kunath, Gero / Obst, Thomas, 2023, Why Price Stability Matters, Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, Brussels, 83 Seiten Zur Studie
Grömling, Michael / Koenen, Michelle / Kunath, Gero / Obst, Thomas / Parthie, Sandra, 2023, Deindustrialisation – A European Assessment, in: Intereconomics, Vol. 58, No. 4, pp. 209-214 Zur Studie
Obst, Thomas, 2021, Dynamic version of Okun’s law in the EU15 countries. The role of delays in the unemployment‐output nexus, in: Scottish Journal of Political Economy Zur Studie
Obst, T., Onaran, O. and Nikolaidi, M. (2019): The effects of income distribution and fiscal policy on growth, investment and the budget balance: the case of Europe. Cambridge Journal of Economics, (in Veröffentlichung).
Onaran, O., Obst, T. (2016): Wage-led growth in the EU15 member-states. The effects of income distribution on growth, investment, trade balance and inflation. In: Cambridge Journal of Economics 40 (6), 1517–1551.
Stadtmann, G., Obst, T. (2017): Fiskalpolitik und Fiskalmultiplikator, Beitrag, in: Das Wirtschaftsstudium 46 (8-9), 979–983.
IW-Report No. 65 12. December 2025 Thomas Obst / Galina Kolev-Schaefer
Global economy: deceptive stability
Despite significant geopolitical tensions and ongoing trade policy conflicts, the global economy proved surprisingly resilient. Global merchandise trade exceeded last year’s level, largely driven by front-loading effects in anticipation of higher tariffs.
External Publication 1. September 2025 Carlândia Fernandes* et al.
The relationship between tax structures and income inequality
The global rise in income inequality has heightened interest in how fiscal policy — particularly the composition of tax revenues — affects income distribution.
IW-Report No. 13 19. March 2025 Thomas Obst / Klaus-Heiner Röhl
Corporate insolvencies rise sharply: Cause for concern or normalization after the pandemic years?
The number of enterprise insolvencies in Germany is rising sharply, and there is no end in sight to the increase. The almost two-decade-long downward trend, which culminated in a slump in reported insolvencies during the Covid-19 pandemic, has thus clearly been broken.
IW-Policy Paper No. 3 23. January 2025 Michael Hüther / Thomas Obst / Jochen Pimpertz
Rising social security contributions weigh on competitiveness
Germany is suffering from a loss of international competitiveness. Revitalising economic growth therefore not only requires a sustainable change of economic policy. Even in the short term, measures must be taken to revitalise public and private investment in Germany.
IW-Report No. 14 4. March 2024 Thomas Obst / Jürgen Matthes / Samina Sultan
What if Trump is re-elected?
A possible re-election of Donald Trump as US president in November 2024 could entail a significant upheaval for the world trading order, if he fulfills his announcements to raise tariffs, mainly in order to reduce the US trade deficit.
IW-Analyse No. 155 9. January 2024 Thomas Obst / Maximilian Stockhausen
A Macroeconomic Analysis of Wage-Price Spirals
The subject of this Analysis is the forms that wage-price spirals can take and how they influence macroeconomic stability and inflationary trends in Germany.
IW-Report No. 1 2. January 2024 Galina Kolev-Schaefer / Thomas Obst / Thomas Puls
Effects of the Middle East conflict on the German economy
Beyond the humanitarian crisis associated with the geopolitical conflict in Israel, which affects millions of human lives, the Middle East conflict also leaves lasting marks on economic activity not only in the affected region, but also in Germany and the world as a whole. This report discusses the various ways in which the conflict is impacting the German economy.
Galina Kolev-Schaefer / Thomas Obst / Thomas Puls IW
External Publication 17. October 2023 Michael Grömling et al.
Deindustrialisation – A European Assessment
The war in Ukraine has exacerbated pre-existing production problems in manufacturing networks originating from the coronavirus pandemic. Material shortages are compounded by uncertainties about sufficient energy supplies.
Michael Grömling / Michelle Koenen / Gero Kunath / Thomas Obst / Sandra Parthie in Intereconomics IW
IW-Report No. 51 13. October 2023 Thomas Obst / Samina Sultan
Poland before the election – Economic model in transition
On 15 October 2023, the Polish people will elect a new government. The outcome of this election and the further economic development of the country is also relevant for Europe and in particular for the immediate neighbouring countries, such as Germany.
Thomas Obst / Samina Sultan IW
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