Dr. Thomas Obst

Private households, companies and governments in Europe are facing enormous challenges. First, far-reach-ing transformations in economic life are on the horizon for the current decade and beyond. Demographic developments are exacerbating the shortages of skilled workers that already exist in many economies and reinforcing the associated obstacles to production.

Michael Grömling / Michelle Koenen / Gero Kunath / Thomas Obst / Sandra Parthie IW

President Joe Biden faces some political and economic headwinds in the upcoming U.S. midterm elections this year. Current economic challenges include historically high inflation rates and signs of an impending recession.

Gero Kunath / Jürgen Matthes / Thomas Obst IW

The European Union is facing one of its biggest crises since the financial crisis of 2008. The pandemic started in 2020 and led to a historical economic downturn in the second quarter of that year.

Michelle Koenen / Gero Kunath / Thomas Obst IW

In 2020, EU companies imported intermediate products worth 2.4 trillion euros, which made up more than half of total merchandise imports of the EU. Compared to the pre-crisis year 2019, imports of intermediates decreased by 13 percent, partly driven by the lower fuel prices.

Galina Kolev / Thomas Obst IW

This paper estimates Okun's law in the EU15 countries between 1980 and 2018. It employs different versions with a focus on the dynamic part of the short-run relationship.

Thomas Obst in Scottish Journal of Political Economy IW

In the course of 2021 Germany’s economic recovery has once again perceptibly lost momentum. After the strain brought about at the beginning of the year by the lockdown for the second and third waves of the Covid19 pandemic, manufacturing and construction companies are now struggling with a shortage of materials, while higher prices for fossil fuels are imposing an additional burden.

IW-Forschungsgruppe Gesamtwirtschaftliche Analysen und Konjunktur IW

The 2021 election campaign for the German Bundestag reveals various demands on the federal budget over the next years. In the coming legislative period, for example, the federal budget may have to finance the "mothers' pension", take over the EEG levy, compensate for an increase in the social security contribution rate above the predefined threshold of 40 per cent, forego the revenues from the remaining "solidarity surcharge" and shoulder a higher defence budget. Some potential coalition partners, however, reject a reform of the debt brake and at the same time even promise significant tax cuts.

Matthias Diermeier / Michael Hüther / Thomas Obst IW

Having experienced strict economic lockdowns, the post-pandemic period various sectors report severe supply side bottlenecks and price increases for intermediate goods.

Hubertus Bardt / Matthias Diermeier / Michael Grömling / Michael Hüther / Thomas Obst IW

A cross-country comparison shows similar behavioural adaptations of individuals despite different degrees of stringency of the respective lockdown in place. In Germany, during the first lockdown in spring 2020 mobility fell by 45 percent, while in Sweden it also decreased by 27 percent during the same period. A comprehensive cost-benefit analysis is crucial to better evaluate the efficacy of lockdowns and implied trade-offs.

Thomas Obst / Dan Schläger IW

Germany’s labour market faces substantial challenges caused by demographic change in the next decade. Looking back over the last 10 years we observe a key role regarding of a successful labour market integration leading to higher employment rates and fostering economic growth.

Michael Hüther / Markos Jung / Thomas Obst IW