Regional disparities in the development of space requirements in daycare centers and schools

More than three decades after reunification, there are still significant differences between the two former German states. In the East, birth rates have been falling sharply since 2016, whereas in the West they experienced a peak phase until 2021. Within the West, the rural areas in the South stand out with a particularly positive trend in the period between 2016 and 2021. Throughout Germany, there is also a strong urban-rural divide, with a more positive trend in the cities until around 2016 and a more negative trend since then. In addition to birth rates, migration can also have an impact on the demographic situation. The year 2022 is very specific case in this regard, as a large number of refugee children and young people from Ukraine was admitted. In recent years there has been a substantial exodus of children under the age of six from urban centres across Germany, which has significantly changed the regional demand for places in daycare centres and schools. This is particularly true in the South. While children from the age of six are generally obliged to attend school, the number of places required in daycare centres also depends on the childcare preferences of the parents. Childcare ratios are much higher in the East than in the West, and there are also major differences between the individual federal states within the West. It is worth noting that there is currently an urban-rural divide in the South and a rural-urban divide in the East when it comes to childcare for children under three years.

Adding a simple extrapolation based on migration movements and changes in the number of births between 2022 and 2023 to the figures already available on the development of child numbers, we find major differences between the East and West in the development of the number of places required in daycare centres. In the West, the peak has just been passed for the children under three years, but not yet für children between three and five years. In contrast, in the East the numbers in both age groups have been falling sharply for some time. There, the childcare rates for the children under three years are already at a very high level, so that a reduction in daycare centres seems unavoidable. However, the personnel resources that are freed up should not be reduced but used to improve childcare ratios. In the primary school sector, the peak in the East has probably already been passed, too. Only in secondary schools the number of pupils is still expected to rise. In contrast, the West is only at the beginning of a sharp rise in pupil numbers at lower secondary level, and these will likely continue to increase in primary schools. This means that a substantial increase in school capacity is still required, which is not so easy to achieve in the short term, as both the training of additional teachers and the construction of school buildings require a substantial amount of time.