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Philipp Deschermeier / Ralph Henger IW-Trends No. 3 1. July 2015 The Significance of the Future Cohort Effect on the Consumption of Housing
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The Significance of the Future Cohort Effect on the Consumption of Housing
Philipp Deschermeier / Ralph Henger IW-Trends No. 3 1. July 2015

The Significance of the Future Cohort Effect on the Consumption of Housing

IW-Trends

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Demographic transition is causing a macroeconomic structural change which also affects the housing markets, since the number, structure and migration of sections of the population directly determine the demand for housing. A key driver of the demand for residential floor space is the so-called cohort effect, which shows how housing consumption increases from generation to generation. With the help of a time series model a forecast is made of age-related residential floor space per person in Germany up to the year 2030. The results show that the cohort effect, at almost 0.6 per cent per annum, will continue to have a positive effect on housing consumption for the next few years. By contrast, the age distribution effect only increases per capita housing consumption by an annual 0.2 per cent. Total German residential floor space per person will thus rise from 46.2 square metres in 2013 to 51.5 square metres in 2030.

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The Significance of the Future Cohort Effect on the Consumption of Housing
Philipp Deschermeier / Ralph Henger IW-Trends No. 3 1. July 2015

Philipp Deschermeier / Ralph Henger: Die Bedeutung des zukünftigen Kohorteneffekts auf den Wohnflächenkonsum

IW-Trends

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Pekka Sagner / Maximilian Stockhausen / Michael Voigtländer IW-Analyse No. 136 21. July 2020

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