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Philipp Deschermeier / Ralph Henger IW-Trends No. 3 1. July 2015 The Significance of the Future Cohort Effect on the Consumption of Housing
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The Significance of the Future Cohort Effect on the Consumption of Housing
Philipp Deschermeier / Ralph Henger IW-Trends No. 3 1. July 2015

The Significance of the Future Cohort Effect on the Consumption of Housing

IW-Trends

German Economic Institute (IW) German Economic Institute (IW)

Demographic transition is causing a macroeconomic structural change which also affects the housing markets, since the number, structure and migration of sections of the population directly determine the demand for housing. A key driver of the demand for residential floor space is the so-called cohort effect, which shows how housing consumption increases from generation to generation. With the help of a time series model a forecast is made of age-related residential floor space per person in Germany up to the year 2030. The results show that the cohort effect, at almost 0.6 per cent per annum, will continue to have a positive effect on housing consumption for the next few years. By contrast, the age distribution effect only increases per capita housing consumption by an annual 0.2 per cent. Total German residential floor space per person will thus rise from 46.2 square metres in 2013 to 51.5 square metres in 2030.

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The Significance of the Future Cohort Effect on the Consumption of Housing
Philipp Deschermeier / Ralph Henger IW-Trends No. 3 1. July 2015

Philipp Deschermeier / Ralph Henger: Die Bedeutung des zukünftigen Kohorteneffekts auf den Wohnflächenkonsum

IW-Trends

German Economic Institute (IW) German Economic Institute (IW)

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Options for affordable new construction
Christian Oberst / Michael Voigtländer IW-Report No. 3 7. January 2024

Options for affordable new construction

Due to the mix of higher interest rates and increased construction costs, new residential construction in Germany is in a very difficult situation.

IW

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Philipp Deschermeier IW-Trends No. 2 14. August 2023

Housing for the Elderly

Many older people share the desire to be able to live independently in the familiar surroundings of their own home for as long as possible. Accidents and illness, however, can soon put an end to such autonomy.

IW

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