The influence of occupational similarity and labor market conditions on occupational change

This means that the surplus quota of positions that mathematically cannot be filled is 64 percent. In other words, there are no suitably qualified skilled workers available for almost two out of three vacancies in these relevant occupations for the expansion of renewable energies. In view of the current rise in unemployment figures, the debate on occupational changes and their potential is becoming increasingly relevant for securing skilled workers. In 2023, around 62.5 percent of new social insurance-contributing jobs in the examined occupations were taken up by people who had previously been employed in other occupations. This illustrates the relevance of occupational change.

This study examines the extent to which the similarity of occupations measured on overlapping competencies is associated with and promotes occupational changes. To measure occupational similarity, a metric was developed using big data methods. It quantifies occupational similarity based on overlaps in skill requirements between pairs of occupations. In addition, occupation-specific parameters from labor market statistics are considered to model other relevant factors influencing the occupational changes.

The results show that a high degree of occupational similarity positively affects occupational change: more people switch to a new occupation if the skill profiles of their original and new occupation are more similar. Regression analyses also show that the formal similarity of occupations as defined by the classification of occupations is also relevant: there are more changes between occupations that are closer to each other in the classification. This applies less to the academic professions than to the vocational training occupations in the set of selected occupations. The generalization of the results is limited due to the focus on relevant occupations for the expansion of renewable energies.

Specific recommendations for policy makers and companies can be derived from the results. It has been shown that companies are generally open to occupational changers. To further increase the potential of suitable occupational changes, companies can indicate in job advertisements that they also welcome applicants who only meet some of the competence requirements for the position or come from similar fields. These efforts can be supported by the Federal Employment Agency by making overlaps in competences with the advertised job profile more visible. To bridge skills gaps, qualification modules such as partial qualifications should also be further strengthened.