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IW-Forschungsgruppe Konjunktur IW-Trends No. 2 25. June 2012 Upturn in a Volatile Environment

IW Economic Forecast, Spring 2012

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Upturn in a Volatile Environment
IW-Forschungsgruppe Konjunktur IW-Trends No. 2 25. June 2012

Upturn in a Volatile Environment

German Economic Institute (IW) German Economic Institute (IW)

IW Economic Forecast, Spring 2012

After the stagnation of the last quarter of 2011 and the first quarter of 2012 the German economy is back on course for growth. The global economic outlook, which last year worsened noticeably as a result of the potentially adverse effects of the sovereign debt crisis, has brightened again. This will benefit German foreign trade but too late to make a positive contribution to the economy in the course of the forecast period. Private consumption and domestic investment activity will drive growth. While price developments will significantly weaken the increase in consumer spending, the sustained positive development in the labour market will lead to an annual 1 per cent expansion in private consumption in each of the years 2012 and 2013. Annual average unemployment will fall in 2012 to 2.6 million, with the number of employed hitting a record level of just under 42 million. The recovery in the economy will contribute to a reduction in the government budget deficit to 1 per cent of GDP in 2012 and only ½ per cent next year. However, this is no reason to ease up on efforts at consolidation.

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Upturn in a Volatile Environment
IW-Forschungsgruppe Konjunktur IW-Trends No. 2 25. June 2012

Upturn in a Volatile Environment

German Economic Institute (IW) German Economic Institute (IW)

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Jürgen Matthes / Michael Grömling / Markus Demary / Björn Kauder / Berthold Busch / Gero Kunath / Thomas Obst External Publication 25. October 2023

Why Price Stability Matters

As of March 2023, overall infation is declining in Europe. However, core infation levels continue to remain well above the 2% mandate of the European Central Bank (ECB). In fact, the current bout of infation should continue to weaken as and when supply-chain ...

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Michael Grömling / Michelle Koenen IW-Report No. 50 5. October 2023

British economy in the mirror of the IW economic traffic light

The economic development in the United Kingdom is characterised by a multitude of changes. The Brexit decision in 2016 and the exit from the EU in 2020 led to uncertainties, particularly in foreign trade, investment, and the labour market.

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