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Wido Geis-Thöne IW-Report No. 14 3. March 2023 Immigration from North Africa: Initial successes and further potential for securing skilled labor

With the baby boomers retiring from the labour market, Germany will be increasingly dependent on skilled workers from abroad in the coming years in order to avoid massive bottlenecks in the labour market and to secure growth and prosperity.

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Initial successes and further potential for securing skilled labor
Wido Geis-Thöne IW-Report No. 14 3. March 2023

Immigration from North Africa: Initial successes and further potential for securing skilled labor

German Economic Institute (IW) German Economic Institute (IW)

With the baby boomers retiring from the labour market, Germany will be increasingly dependent on skilled workers from abroad in the coming years in order to avoid massive bottlenecks in the labour market and to secure growth and prosperity.

At the same time, demographic change is also leading to a decline in labour force potentials in the other EU member states, so that the focus of a targeted strategy to secure the skilled labour base through immigration must lie outside Europe. North Africa is very well suited as a focus region alongside others. The birth rate here is still above the level needed to maintain the population, which means that the labour supply will also grow significantly in the longer term. At the same time, a strong expansion of education has taken place in recent years, so that Egypt, Algeria, Libya and Tunisia are now classified as highly developed in the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI). Only Morocco still falls into the category of countries with a medium level of development, which also includes India, for example, due to its lower level of education of the population. Compared to other regions, North Africa is geographically close. However, with 207.0 million people in 2020, the total population here is only about one-seventh the size of India.

Within the region, Egypt is by far the most populous with 107.5 million inhabitants and thus also has the greatest migration potential. Germany has already been very successful in attracting skilled workers from Egypt. The number of Egyptians employed in Germany subject to social security contributions has increased more than fivefold from 3,300 in June 2012 to 17,600 in June 2022. At the same time, the share of employed persons in the working-age population between 15 and 64 years of age rose from 29.6 percent to 49.6 percent between December 2011 and December 2021. In June 2022, almost half of them (48.4 percent) were working as specialists or experts, which usually requires a university degree or a master craftsman, technician or other specialist qualification. They were also particularly often employed in the health sector and in the ICT industry. Moreover, Egypt has the advantage over other potential countries of origin of foreign skilled workers that Germany's position in competition with the other countries of the western world is comparatively favourable, as larger Egyptian communities do not yet exist.

In contrast, the Maghreb states of Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia have strong ties to the former colonial power France. However, there are also somewhat larger Moroccan and Tunisian communities in Germany, which have their origins in the recruitment of guest workers in the 1960s and 1970s and can promote immigration. As with Egyptians, there was a sharp increase in Tunisians in employment subject to social security contributions between June 2012 and June 2022, from 8,400 to 22,600. The proportion of those working in specialist or expert occupations among them was also high at 27.8 per cent in June 2022. Thus, a noticeable success with regard to securing skilled labour in Germany is already evident here as well. This is probably at least partly due to the fact that the online platform "Make it in Germany" has already specifically promoted the immigration of skilled workers to Germany in Tunisia, as well as in Egypt and Morocco, in recent years. This should be continued in the coming years and, as far as possible, supplemented by targeted placement offers for North African skilled workers. In addition, qualification offers in the area of the German language, which already exist in part, should be further expanded in North Africa.

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Initial successes and further potential for securing skilled labor
Wido Geis-Thöne IW-Report No. 14 3. March 2023

Immigration from North Africa: Initial successes and further potential for securing skilled labor

German Economic Institute (IW) German Economic Institute (IW)

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