Immigration from the new EU member countries: A success story comes to an end

Between 31 December 2009 and 31 December 2024, the number of people with citizenship of the new EU member states in Germany rose by 2.15 million from 966,000 to 3.11 million. This increase alone corresponds to 2.6 per cent of the current total population. Against the backdrop of demographic change, the German labour market, which is increasingly affected by labour shortages, has benefited greatly from this. Between January 2010 and 2025, the number of employees subject to social security contributions who are nationals of the new EU member states increased by around 1.42 million from 254,000 to 1.68 million. This increase corresponds to 4.1 per cent of current total employment. At the same time, only 113,000 employable recipients of benefits under the Second Social Security Code with citizenship of the new EU member states have been added, which corresponds to 2.9 per cent of the current total. Not only the metropolises, but also many rural areas in Germany have benefited. For example, many people from the new EU member states have settled in the western part of Lower Saxony.

However, this success story is likely to be over by now. According to the statistics on foreigners, more people with citizenship of the new EU member states emigrated than immigrated in 2024 and their employment also declined slightly. It remains to be seen whether this will result in a stronger return migration movement. One argument against this is that the level of prosperity in the former socialist countries is still considerably lower than in Germany, although a strong catch-up process has taken place in recent decades. It is quite certain that there will not be another strong influx of migrants to Germany in the foreseeable future, as there is hardly any migration potential in the new EU member states from a demographic perspective. Therefore, German migration policy must attract skilled labour primarily from outside Europe in order to secure growth and prosperity in the country. In September 2024, 944,000 people with citizenship of the new EU member states were working in such jobs, which typically require a vocational or academic qualification. At the same time, strategies must be developed to secure the labour supply in the area of seasonal employment and other simple jobs that are currently often carried out by people from the new EU member states. Otherwise, there is a risk of labour shortages here too, as companies are often unable to find suitable applicants in Germany, despite a sufficient supply of jobseekers with qualifications in the helper sector.