Debate on compulsory military service: Attractiveness of the German Armed Forces is crucial

The number of soldiers and reservists in Germany is set to double from the current figure of around 230,000 to 460,000 by 2035. The current number of just over 180,000 soldiers is then set to rise to 260,000. In order to achieve this target, the federal government wants to significantly increase the number of volunteers performing military service (official spelling: Freiwillig Wehrdienst Leistende). From an economic perspective, it is crucial to assign as few people as possible to military service who could be more productive elsewhere. Central to defense capability is the number of combat-ready soldiers and reservists emerging from voluntary service. The more sustainable this recruitment is, the fewer volunteers will be needed.

The question is therefore: How can defense capability be strengthened while minimizing the impact on overall economic performance? The study calculates scenarios for personnel growth in the Bundeswehr based on different assumptions regarding the number of volunteers and the attractiveness of service. Based on the Bundeswehr’s current recruitment success and Sweden’s experience, the planned increase to 40,000 volunteers annually by 2031 under the new voluntary service model is unlikely to be sufficient to reach the target. In this baseline scenario, the number of soldiers and reservists would increase by just under 50 percent by 2035 and by about 65 percent by 2040. Doubling the total number would require reducing dropout rates and motivating more people to commit to fixed-term service. Doubling the total number would require reducing dropout rates and motivating more people to commit to fixed-term service. In an optimistic scenario with highly attractive service conditions, the increase could reach nearly 80 percent by 2035, with the target strength achieved by 2039. In order to reach the target as desired in 2035, the number of volunteers performing military service would have to be increased more quickly and significantly, to 50,000 in 2029. With more volunteers, the increase can be accelerated, but the attractiveness of the service is crucial for its sustainability.

Conscription would oblige many people who do not want to become soldiers or reservists to perform military service – with little long-term effect on defense capabilities, but high costs. For reasons of fairness, conscription could entail alternative service similar to the former civilian service, which would keep even more young people out of the labor market and thus significantly increase costs. In order to make the expansion of the Bundeswehr's personnel cost-effective, we recommend the following measures:

• From an economic perspective, it is advisable to make military service so attractive that the increase in personnel can be achieved on a voluntary basis. The required soldiers and reservists should be recruited from the smallest possible number of volunteers. To this end, the Bundeswehr and politicians should focus on increasing the attractiveness of military service.
• Conscription or general compulsory service would be very expensive. As long as it remains on the table, it could also undermine efforts to make military service more attractive. The planned target range should therefore also include attractiveness features such as dropout and commitment rates and not focus solely on increasing the short-term recruitment of soldiers.
• The high starting salary that is being sought can be justified on the grounds of fairness. However, it may be advisable to link payment more strongly to completion of service, as is done in Sweden. This could reduce undesirable windfall effects and lower dropout rates.
• The start and end dates of voluntary service should be flexible, allowing participants to transition smoothly into education or employment.
• Voluntary service should not last longer than necessary to recruit fixed-term soldiers and active reservists. It may be sensible to facilitate early transition into education, training, or employment for volunteers with lower prospects of continued service.
• The Bundeswehr requires greater flexibility to allow all motivated and qualified soldiers to extend their service.
• Extending compulsory military service to women does not appear to be very effective. Instead, the Bundeswehr should continue to consistently pursue their goal of making it an attractive working environment for women as well.