Economic Forecasts

The German Economic Insitute (IW) publishes bi-annual economic forecasts in which our researchers try to predict economic developments in Germany.

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IW-Forschungsgruppe Gesamtwirtschaftliche Analysen und Konjunktur / Hubertus Bardt / Markus Demary / Michael Grömling / Tobias Hentze / Michael Hüther / Galina Kolev / Holger Schäfer ·
IW-Report Nr. 46 ·
14 September 2020

IW-Konjunkturprognose: The long road to recovery

In the second quarter of 2020 the corona pandemic adversely affected global economic activity to an extent unparalleled in the last seven decades. This was the result of health policy measures and the virus’s widely varying impact on both the supply and demand sides of the economies it has affected around the world.

IW-Forschungsgruppe Gesamtwirtschaftliche Analysen und Konjunktur ·
IW-Trends Nr. 4 ·
18 December 2019

IW Economic Forecast and IW Business Survey Winter 2019

The German economy is stagnating. Manufacturing has been in recession since 2018 and the value added notched up by business-to-business services also declined in the second and third quarters of 2019.

IW-Forschungsgruppe Gesamtwirtschaftliche Analysen und Konjunktur ·
IW-Trends Nr. 2 ·
23 April 2019

Uncertainty Weakens the Economy: IW Economic Forecast and IW Economic Survey Spring 2019

Since the summer of 2018 the German economy has only been treading water. The reasons for this are the slowdown in world trade caused by protectionism and the adjustment burdens in the automotive sector, which have affected the production and export activity of German manufacturing.

IW Research Group Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast ·
IW-Trends ·
3 December 2018

IW Economic Forecast and Business Survey Autumn 2018: Weak Growth with a Stiffening Headwind

The German economy contracted in the third quarter of 2018 as temporary dips in new registrations caused a decline in production in the automotive sector. Although some of this lost ground will be made up later, economic growth for the year as a whole will be a meagre 1.5 per cent.

Michael Grömling ·
Press Release ·
19 September 2018

IW Economic Forecast: In Descent

The power struggle between the USA and China is also perceptible in these parts; exports are declining, companies invest less. The German Economic Institute thus adjusts its economic forecast downward.

IW Research Group Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast ·
IW-Trends Nr. 3 ·
17 September 2018

IW Economic Forecast Autumn 2018

The global economy is not immune to a resurgence of protectionism. Trade in goods in particular has stagnated in the year to date while global investment growth is slowing again. Economic activity is being further hobbled by institutional problems in a number of emerging economies and by rising energy prices. This has put some expectations of growth on a downward trajectory, albeit with no anticipation of a crash landing.

Companies Confident – Protectionism a Serious Threat

IW-Forschungsgruppe Konjunktur ·
IW-Trends Nr. 1 ·
13 April 2018

IW Economic Forecast Spring 2018

The global economic climate has deteriorated. The protectionist tone of the US administration is provoking a world-wide trade conflict which may well trigger other problems, such as financial crises in China or in Europe.

IW Research Group Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast ·
IW-Trends Nr. 4 ·
27 November 2017

Has the German Economy Reached its Limit?: Skilled Labour Shortages as a Brake on Growth

The German economy is performing significantly better than was expected in the first few months of this year. During the course of 2017, certain early fears – especially of a weakening of the global economy due to increasing protectionism – have proved groundless.

IW-Forschungsgruppe Konjunktur ·
IW-Trends Nr. 2 ·
18 May 2017

Economy Buoyed by the Labour Market: Successes Not to Be Squandered IW Economic Forecast Spring 2017

The German economy remains on an expansion course, with real gross domestic product expected to grow by over 1 ½ percent in 2017 and by 1 ¾ percent in 2018, the lower number of working days acting as a brake on macroeconomic performance in the current year.

Research Group Business Cycle ·
IW-Trends Nr. 4 ·
22 November 2016

Escalating Uncertainty Paralyzes Investments: IW Economic Forecast Autumn 2016

2016 has seen an ongoing and dramatic increase in economic and political uncertainty. Besides the growth problems of the larger emerging economies and the as yet unsolved debt and structural problems in Europe, the anticipated exit of the United Kingdom from the EU and the election results in the USA have reduced companies’ long-term planning horizon even further.

Eine exakte Vorhersage für das Wirtschaftswachstum ist allerdings nicht möglich. Eine Konjunkturprognose ist nur eine sogenannte bedingte Prognose. Die Forscher treffen Annahmen und geben an, welche wirtschaftlichen Entwicklungen unter diesen Bedingungen wahrscheinlich sind.

Für Unternehmen ist eine sinnvolle Konjunkturprognose unerlässlich, etwa in Tarifverhandlungen. Wenn nur ein geringes Wachstum prognostiziert wird, ist der Spielraum für Lohnerhöhungen kleiner. Eine Konjunkturprognose ist zudem wichtig für die Investitionstätigkeit der Unternehmen.

Prof. Dr. Michael Grömling

Head of the Research Group Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast

Tel+49 221 4981-776

Mailgroemling@iwkoeln.de

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Prof. Dr. Galina Kolev

Senior Economist, Head of the Research Group Macroeconomic Analyses and Business Cycles

Tel+49 221 4981-774

Mailkolev@iwkoeln.de

@galina_kolev

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