Economic Forecasts

The German Economic Insitute (IW) publishes bi-annual economic forecasts in which our researchers try to predict economic developments in Germany.

IW Research Group Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast ·
IW-Trends ·
3 Dec 2018

IW Economic Forecast and Business Survey Autumn 2018: Weak Growth with a Stiffening Headwind

The German economy contracted in the third quarter of 2018 as temporary dips in new registrations caused a decline in production in the automotive sector. Although some of this lost ground will be made up later, economic growth for the year as a whole will be a meagre 1.5 per cent.

Michael Grömling ·
Press Release ·
19 Sep 2018

IW Economic Forecast: In Descent

The power struggle between the USA and China is also perceptible in these parts; exports are declining, companies invest less. The German Economic Institute thus adjusts its economic forecast downward.

IW Research Group Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast ·
IW-Trends No. 3 ·
17 Sep 2018

IW Economic Forecast Autumn 2018

The global economy is not immune to a resurgence of protectionism. Trade in goods in particular has stagnated in the year to date while global investment growth is slowing again. Economic activity is being further hobbled by institutional problems in a number of emerging economies and by rising energy prices. This has put some expectations of growth on a downward trajectory, albeit with no anticipation of a crash landing.

Companies Confident – Protectionism a Serious Threat

IW-Forschungsgruppe Konjunktur ·
IW-Trends No. 1 ·
13 Apr 2018

IW Economic Forecast Spring 2018

The global economic climate has deteriorated. The protectionist tone of the US administration is provoking a world-wide trade conflict which may well trigger other problems, such as financial crises in China or in Europe.

IW Research Group Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast ·
IW-Trends No. 4 ·
27 Nov 2017

Has the German Economy Reached its Limit?: Skilled Labour Shortages as a Brake on Growth

The German economy is performing significantly better than was expected in the first few months of this year. During the course of 2017, certain early fears – especially of a weakening of the global economy due to increasing protectionism – have proved groundless.

Eine exakte Vorhersage für das Wirtschaftswachstum ist allerdings nicht möglich. Eine Konjunkturprognose ist nur eine sogenannte bedingte Prognose. Die Forscher treffen Annahmen und geben an, welche wirtschaftlichen Entwicklungen unter diesen Bedingungen wahrscheinlich sind.

Für Unternehmen ist eine sinnvolle Konjunkturprognose unerlässlich, etwa in Tarifverhandlungen. Wenn nur ein geringes Wachstum prognostiziert wird, ist der Spielraum für Lohnerhöhungen kleiner. Eine Konjunkturprognose ist zudem wichtig für die Investitionstätigkeit der Unternehmen.