Every quarter the IW Financial Expert Survey reviews the forecasts of German banks for six financial market indicators, such as the DAX share index and interest rates, and monitors the accuracy of previous forecasts.
Now carried out by the German Economic Institute (IW), the Financial Expert Survey continues the monitoring of financial forecasts initiated by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in 2001. It pursues the ZEW’s original aim of providing a representative overview of the financial market forecasts of the financial institutions active in Germany and their accuracy.
To ensure the comparability of the IW’s results with those of the ZEW, the original methodology has been retained. The parameters projected by the experts are the short-term interest rate (three-month Euribor), the long-term interest rate (the yield of German government bonds with a residual term of ten years), the Dow Jones Stoxx Europe 50 Index, the DAX share index, the exchange rate of the euro to the dollar and the oil price (per barrel of Brent crude).