Essays from our quarterly journal of empirical economic research
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The German economy is performing significantly better than was expected in the first few months of this year. During the course of 2017, certain early fears – especially of a weakening of the global economy due to increasing protectionism – have proved groundless.
Over the last few years the African continent has received considerably more international attention – most recently at the G20 meeting in Hamburg – and with it has come increasing discussion of the continent’s economic opportunities and its integration into international value chains.
The German economy remains on an expansion course, with real gross domestic product expected to grow by over 1 ½ percent in 2017 and by 1 ¾ percent in 2018, the lower number of working days acting as a brake on macroeconomic performance in the current year.
In the course of 2015 and 2016 about 1.2 million refugees entered Germany. The authors estimate the short- to medium-term effects of this on the country’s economic development using a macro-econometric model.
2016 has seen an ongoing and dramatic increase in economic and political uncertainty. Besides the growth problems of the larger emerging economies and the as yet unsolved debt and structural problems in Europe, the anticipated exit of the United Kingdom from the EU and the election results in the USA have reduced companies’ long-term planning horizon even further.
IW Economic Forecast Spring 2016
At the beginning of 2016 the price for crude oil plummeted once again. Model simulations show that the greatest positive effect of this fall is to be expected in private consumption. The simulations...
The Expectations and Explanations of German Companies
IW Economic Forecast Autumn 2015
Concept, Data and Evaluation