Germany’s population is set to decline in the next few decades. Rural counties and cities in the Ruhr valley and eastern Germany are already shrinking, while metropolises such as Munich and Hamburg continue to experience strong growth. Real estate investors are therefore largely concentrating on cities that are expected to continue growing in the medium term. However, using an empirical model based on data for 127 cities, it can be shown that today’s prices already reflect expectations of future real estate demand. This applies both to the price of residential property and the assumed growth in rents. It can thus be concluded that, as far as purely demographic factors are concerned, real estate prices in German cities will neither dramatically decline nor soar.
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