Germany’s economic adjustment burdens have increased considerably in the course of 2015. Coping with a more slowly expanding world economy – particularly the global decline in investment activity – and with the uncertainties caused by the influx of refugees requires considerable flexibility. The Cologne Institute for Economic Research (IW Köln) expects only moderate increases in exports but a significant boost to growth from both private and public consumption. Investment activity, however, remains only moderate. There has so far been no sign of a fully-developed economic cycle. The number of both employed and unemployed persons will rise next year. Despite additional public spending caused by the inflow of refugees, a public sector deficit can be avoided.