It is not just a question of whether the current administration will be elected for another four years. A re-election of the current president is likely to further weaken multilateral approaches and make transatlantic cooperation more difficult. While a continuation of the previous presidency for another four years until the beginning of 2025 - despite the unpredictability of the current US administration - is likely to continue existing development trends. Changes can be expected if the government changes. However, this will not mean that the past four years can be undone, nor is a 180-degree turnaround in politics in the areas of importance for Germany and Europe realistic. How a possible administration can operate under democratic leadership essentially depends on the political positioning of a new president. Depending on which candidate the democratic party nominates after the primaries, the differences to current politics will not be that big in some areas. Particularly when it comes to free trade, there are sometimes pronounced protectionist tendencies among the democratic candidates. There will be no way back to a supposedly conflict-free cooperation - which never existed in the past. This is all the more true if a democratic president cannot rely on a majority in both houses.