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International Economics and Economic Outlook

Scientists in the competence area International Economic Order and Business Cycle call for open markets and rules at European and global level.

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International Economics and Economic Outlook After the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area and the Brexit referendum, priority must be given to putting economic policy in Europe on an optimal course without setting the wrong long-term incentives. One of the key questions is whether deeper integration is really essential for bringing stability to the euro area. Moreover, the EU needs to sort out its future, particularly regarding issues like a more variable geometry, the EU budget and its regional policy.

In addition, our researchers analyse the business cycle and investigate other macroeconomic issues. For example, given the demografic change and the currently slow productivity growth, we examine the prospects for growth and investment in Germany, Europe and the world. This is an issue closely connected with the future viability of the German business model with its heavy bias towards exports.

The economists in this research unit also take an active part in economic policy debates, be it discussion of the German current account surplus, Germany’s attractiveness as a location for investment or the threat to open markets by Brexit and Trumponomics.

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      Sections of the Research Unit

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      Cooperation Partners

      • Association of European Conjuncture Institutes (AIECE)
      • International Network for Economic Research (INFER)
      • Confindustria
      • COE Rexecode
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      Contact

      View profile
      Jürgen Matthes

      Jürgen Matthes

      Head of Cluster Global and Regional Markets

      Tel: +49 221 4981-754
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      Berthold Busch

      Dr. Berthold Busch

      Senior Economist for European Integration

      Tel: +49 221 4981-762
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      Michael Grömling

      Prof. Dr. Michael Grömling

      Head of Cluster Macroeconomic and the Business Cycle

      Tel: +49 221 4981-776
      View profile
      Samina Sultan

      Dr. Samina Sultan

      Economist for International Economic Order and Business Cycle

      Tel: +49 221 4981-312
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      Studies and contributions

      177 results
      Read study
      Economic Impact of the Corona Pandemic and the Ukraine War
      IW-Report No. 40 11. August 2022

      Europe on the brink of recession?

      Michelle Koenen / Gero Kunath / Thomas Obst

      The European Union is facing one of its biggest crises since the financial crisis of 2008. The pandemic started in 2020 and led to a historical economic downturn in the second quarter of that year.

      IW

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      An initial assessment of the economic and political consequences for the UK
      IW-Analyse No. 150 28. July 2022

      After Brexit: An initial assessment of the economic and political consequences for the UK

      Berthold Busch

      The British hopes for a high Brexit dividend as a result of the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union have not been fulfilled.

      IW

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      Do Family Businesses Shape Political Voting Behaviour in Germany?
      IW-Trends No. 3 1. July 2022

      Do Family Businesses Shape Political Voting Behaviour in Germany?

      Björn Kauder

      In recent years family businesses have become an object of research in their own right. Indeed, it has been shown that, far from developing less dynamically than other firms, as once assumed, family businesses actually outperform their peers.

      IW

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      21. Jun 21. Jun
      Philipp Saueracker Event 21. June 2022

      EU/China/USA- three bloc systemic conflict: Digital policies as trade barriers?!

      European companies operate world-wide within international value-chains, networks and ecosystems. However, the world is changing for geopolitical reasons. Increasingly, it becomes divided into large blocks with the EU, the United States and China at the forefront.

      IW

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      Mutual dependence in trade between China, the EU and Germany
      IW-Report No. 35 13. June 2022

      Mutual dependence in trade between China, the EU and Germany

      Jürgen Matthes

      An inventory of the mutual dependencies in foreign trade between the EU and Germany on the one hand and China and Russia on the other is necessary in order to be able to make political deductions in these times of “Zeitenwende” on a sound empirical basis.

      IW

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      Evidence from voting on same-sex marriage
      External Publication 10. May 2022

      Rewarding conservative politicians?: Evidence from voting on same-sex marriage

      Björn Kauder / Niklas Potrafke in Public Choice

      We ask whether voters rewarded conservative politicians who voted in favor of same-sex marriage. The evidence is based on a rollcall vote in the German national parliament (Bundestag) in June 2017.

      IW

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      The Productivity Effects of Capital Formation in Germany
      IW-Trends No. 2 9. May 2022

      The Productivity Effects of Capital Formation in Germany

      Michael Grömling

      Despite broad-based digitalisation, productivity advances in Germany in recent years have been considerably lower than in previous decades. This paper conducts a growth accounting which points to steeply declining stimuli from technical progress and especially from capital formation.

      IW

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      How big is the crisis?
      IW-Report No. 19 5. May 2022

      China's real estate sector: How big is the crisis?

      Sonja Beer

      This report analyses the rising risks in the Chinese financial market as well as the current tensions in the Chinese real estate market.

      IW

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      Stability instead of government overreach
      IW-Policy Paper No. 1 25. February 2022

      Stability instead of government overreach

      Jürgen Matthes

      Contrary to what the German government seems to be aiming for, a reform of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) is necessary. The debt reduction rule forces highly indebted euro countries to reduce their debt too quickly and too damagingly for growth.

      IW

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      Survey-based results on the expected effects of the German Supply Chains Act
      IW-Report No. 8 23. February 2022

      Effects of a supply chain regulation

      Galina Kolev / Adriana Neligan

      The European Commission is planning a new regulation for mandatory human rights and environmental due diligence (Due Diligence Directive) as part of the Sustainable Corporate Governance initiative. The long-awaited EU proposal is expected to have requirements that go far beyond the German Act on Due Diligence in Supply Chains (the so-called Lieferkettensorgfaltspflichtengesetz), which was regarded as a possible blueprint for a European solution. The present paper contributes to the debate on an EU due diligence regulation by presenting results of a recent survey conducted by the German Economic Institute (IW) on the potential impact of the already adopted German Act on Due Diligence in Supply Chains.

      IW