The research group monitors, analyzes and forecasts short-term economic developments.
The aim of the research group ´Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast´ at the German Economic Institute is to keep a weather eye on short-term economic trends and provide regular analyses and forecasts. The research group’s work is presented to the public in the media and in scientific publications and lectures.
- Monitoring: As part of its economic monitoring activities, the IW regularly takes stock of the economic situation in Germany and the rest of the world. The IW uses its own economic surveys in spring and fall as well as the association survey at the end of each year. In addition, the IW operates the EIX forecast exchange together with Handelsblatt, the Institute of Information Systems and Management and the Forschungszentrum Informatik in Karlsruhe. The IW also continues to develop market and business statistics as well as national accounts.
- Analysis: Business cycle analysis explains economic developments in Germany and the world. Its aim is to identify business cycle patterns. However, business cycles do not exhibit regularities like the tides, but are the result of exogenous shocks and endogenous amplifications that occur irregularly and have different causes.
- Forecast: Twice a year, the research group produces a comprehensive forecast of short-term economic developments. The researchers predict the development of the global economy, financial markets, domestic economy, labor market and the national budget.
- Economic survey
- Economic forecast
- Association survey
- Economic traffic light
- amsa Institute
- Association of European Conjuncture Institutes (AIECE)
- Coe-Rexecode, Centre d'observation économique et de Recherche pour l'Expansion de l'économie et le Développement des Entreprises
- Confindustria, Confederazione Generale dell'Industria Italian
- Association of the Bavarian Metal and Electrical Industry e.V.
The EU and the US remain each other’s most important economic partners, despite the con-frontative course of the Trump administration and China’s rise as a global economic power. This is particularly the case as interconnectedness and the role of foreign affiliates in exchanging know-how and services have been gaining importance as the very fundamentals of future globalization.
Having experienced strict economic lockdowns, the post-pandemic period various sectors report severe supply side bottlenecks and price increases for intermediate goods.
In international comparison, Germany is a high-tax country. Since the corporate tax reform in 2008, the burden has increased while many other countries have lowered tax rates.
A trade policy approach to climate challenges can give a positive impetus to WTO reform based on the commitment to a common target and reinforced by the urgency of that target.
The current economic crisis has become a crisis of consumption and has taken on more extreme dimensions than that caused by the global financial market upheavals of 2008/2009. In the 15 years preceding the outbreak of the Corona pandemic in Germany, private consumption grew at a rate similar to that in the 1990s.