1. Home
  2. Institute
  3. Research Groups
  4. Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast

Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast

The research group monitors, analyzes and forecasts short-term economic developments.

Content element with id 1037

The aim of the research group ´Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast´ at the German Economic Institute is to keep a weather eye on short-term economic trends and provide regular analyses and forecasts. The research group’s work is presented to the public in the media and in scientific publications and lectures.

Focus

  • Monitoring: As part of its economic monitoring activities, the IW regularly takes stock of the economic situation in Germany and the rest of the world. The IW uses its own economic surveys in spring and fall as well as the association survey at the end of each year. In addition, the IW operates the EIX forecast exchange together with Handelsblatt, the Institute of Information Systems and Management and the Forschungszentrum Informatik in Karlsruhe. The IW also continues to develop market and business statistics as well as national accounts.
  • Analysis: Business cycle analysis explains economic developments in Germany and the world. Its aim is to identify business cycle patterns. However, business cycles do not exhibit regularities like the tides, but are the result of exogenous shocks and endogenous amplifications that occur irregularly and have different causes.
  • Forecast: Twice a year, the research group produces a comprehensive forecast of short-term economic developments. The researchers predict the development of the global economy, financial markets, domestic economy, labor market and the national budget.

Publications

  • Economic survey
  • Economic forecast
  • Association survey
  • Economic traffic light

Cooperation partner

  •     amsa Institute
  •     Association of European Conjuncture Institutes (AIECE)
  •     Coe-Rexecode, Centre d'observation économique et de Recherche pour l'Expansion de l'économie et le Développement des Entreprises
  •     Confindustria, Confederazione Generale dell'Industria Italian
  •     Association of the Bavarian Metal and Electrical Industry e.V.
Content element with id 1038

Contact

View profile
Michael Grömling

Prof. Dr. Michael Grömling

Head of the Research Group Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast

Tel: +49 221 4981-776
View profile
Galina Kolev

Prof. Dr. Galina Kolev

Senior Economist, Head of the Research Group Macroeconomic Analyses and Business Cycles

Tel: +49 221 4981-774
Content element with id 8710 Content element with id 8827

All Article

85 results
Read study
The transatlantic economic relations and their outstanding significance for the future of the European and the German economy
Expertise 6. September 2021

The transatlantic economic relations and their outstanding significance for the future of the European and the German economy

Galina Kolev

The EU and the US remain each other’s most important economic partners, despite the con-frontative course of the Trump administration and China’s rise as a global economic power. This is particularly the case as interconnectedness and the role of foreign affiliates in exchanging know-how and services have been gaining importance as the very fundamentals of future globalization.

IW

Read study
Supply bottlenecks and price developments for raw materials and inputs
IW-Report No. 27 9. August 2021

Supply bottlenecks and price developments for raw materials and inputs

Hubertus Bardt / Matthias Diermeier / Michael Grömling / Michael Hüther / Thomas Obst

Having experienced strict economic lockdowns, the post-pandemic period various sectors report severe supply side bottlenecks and price increases for intermediate goods.

IW

Read study
Economic Effects of the BDI tax model for the future
Expertise 10. June 2021

Economic Effects of the BDI tax model for the future

Tobias Hentze / Galina Kolev

In international comparison, Germany is a high-tax country. Since the corporate tax reform in 2008, the burden has increased while many other countries have lowered tax rates.

IW

Read study
Trade Club for Climate
IW-Policy Paper No. 8 26. April 2021

Trade Club for Climate

Galina Kolev / Hubertus Bardt

A trade policy approach to climate challenges can give a positive impetus to WTO reform based on the commitment to a common target and reinforced by the urgency of that target.

IW

Read study
The Impact of the Corona Pandemic Compared with Earlier Economic Crises
IW-Trends 20. April 2021

The Impact of the Corona Pandemic Compared with Earlier Economic Crises

Hubertus Bardt / Michael Grömling

The current economic crisis has become a crisis of consumption and has taken on more extreme dimensions than that caused by the global financial market upheavals of 2008/2009. In the 15 years preceding the outbreak of the Corona pandemic in Germany, private consumption grew at a rate similar to that in the 1990s.

IW

Content element with id 8880 Content element with id 9713