The research group monitors, analyzes and forecasts short-term economic developments.
The aim of the research group ´Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast´ at the German Economic Institute is to keep a weather eye on short-term economic trends and provide regular analyses and forecasts. The research group’s work is presented to the public in the media and in scientific publications and lectures.
- Monitoring: As part of its economic monitoring activities, the IW regularly takes stock of the economic situation in Germany and the rest of the world. The IW uses its own economic surveys in spring and fall as well as the association survey at the end of each year. In addition, the IW operates the EIX forecast exchange together with Handelsblatt, the Institute of Information Systems and Management and the Forschungszentrum Informatik in Karlsruhe. The IW also continues to develop market and business statistics as well as national accounts.
- Analysis: Business cycle analysis explains economic developments in Germany and the world. Its aim is to identify business cycle patterns. However, business cycles do not exhibit regularities like the tides, but are the result of exogenous shocks and endogenous amplifications that occur irregularly and have different causes.
- Forecast: Twice a year, the research group produces a comprehensive forecast of short-term economic developments. The researchers predict the development of the global economy, financial markets, domestic economy, labor market and the national budget.
- Economic survey
- Economic forecast
- Association survey
- Economic traffic light
- amsa Institute
- Association of European Conjuncture Institutes (AIECE)
- Coe-Rexecode, Centre d'observation économique et de Recherche pour l'Expansion de l'économie et le Développement des Entreprises
- Confindustria, Confederazione Generale dell'Industria Italian
- Association of the Bavarian Metal and Electrical Industry e.V.
Despite broad-based digitalisation, productivity advances in Germany in recent years have been considerably lower than in previous decades. This paper conducts a growth accounting which points to steeply declining stimuli from technical progress and especially from capital formation.
The European Commission is planning a new regulation for mandatory human rights and environmental due diligence (Due Diligence Directive) as part of the Sustainable Corporate Governance initiative. The long-awaited EU proposal is expected to have requirements that go far beyond the German Act on Due Diligence in Supply Chains (the so-called Lieferkettensorgfaltspflichtengesetz), which was regarded as a possible blueprint for a European solution. The present paper contributes to the debate on an EU due diligence regulation by presenting results of a recent survey conducted by the German Economic Institute (IW) on the potential impact of the already adopted German Act on Due Diligence in Supply Chains.
In 2020, EU companies imported intermediate products worth 2.4 trillion euros, which made up more than half of total merchandise imports of the EU. Compared to the pre-crisis year 2019, imports of intermediates decreased by 13 percent, partly driven by the lower fuel prices.
In the course of 2021 Germany’s economic recovery has once again perceptibly lost momentum. After the strain brought about at the beginning of the year by the lockdown for the second and third waves of the Covid19 pandemic, manufacturing and construction companies are now struggling with a shortage of materials, while higher prices for fossil fuels are imposing an additional burden.
The EU and the US remain each other’s most important economic partners, despite the con-frontative course of the Trump administration and China’s rise as a global economic power. This is particularly the case as interconnectedness and the role of foreign affiliates in exchanging know-how and services have been gaining importance as the very fundamentals of future globalization.