1. Home
  2. Institute
  3. Research Groups
  4. Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast

Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast

The research group monitors, analyzes and forecasts short-term economic developments.

Content element with id 1037

The aim of the research group ´Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast´ at the German Economic Institute is to keep a weather eye on short-term economic trends and provide regular analyses and forecasts. The research group’s work is presented to the public in the media and in scientific publications and lectures.

Focus

  • Monitoring: As part of its economic monitoring activities, the IW regularly takes stock of the economic situation in Germany and the rest of the world. The IW uses its own economic surveys in spring and fall as well as the association survey at the end of each year. In addition, the IW operates the EIX forecast exchange together with Handelsblatt, the Institute of Information Systems and Management and the Forschungszentrum Informatik in Karlsruhe. The IW also continues to develop market and business statistics as well as national accounts.
  • Analysis: Business cycle analysis explains economic developments in Germany and the world. Its aim is to identify business cycle patterns. However, business cycles do not exhibit regularities like the tides, but are the result of exogenous shocks and endogenous amplifications that occur irregularly and have different causes.
  • Forecast: Twice a year, the research group produces a comprehensive forecast of short-term economic developments. The researchers predict the development of the global economy, financial markets, domestic economy, labor market and the national budget.

Publications

  • Economic survey
  • Economic forecast
  • Association survey
  • Economic traffic light

Cooperation partner

  •     amsa Institute
  •     Association of European Conjuncture Institutes (AIECE)
  •     Coe-Rexecode, Centre d'observation économique et de Recherche pour l'Expansion de l'économie et le Développement des Entreprises
  •     Confindustria, Confederazione Generale dell'Industria Italian
  •     Association of the Bavarian Metal and Electrical Industry e.V.
Content element with id 1038

Contact

View profile
Michael Grömling

Prof. Dr. Michael Grömling

Head of the Research Group Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast

Tel: +49 221 4981-776
Content element with id 8710 Content element with id 8827

All Article

89 results
Read study
The Productivity Effects of Capital Formation in Germany
IW-Trends No. 2 9. May 2022

The Productivity Effects of Capital Formation in Germany

Michael Grömling

Despite broad-based digitalisation, productivity advances in Germany in recent years have been considerably lower than in previous decades. This paper conducts a growth accounting which points to steeply declining stimuli from technical progress and especially from capital formation.

IW

Read study
Survey-based results on the expected effects of the German Supply Chains Act
IW-Report No. 8 23. February 2022

Effects of a supply chain regulation

Galina Kolev / Adriana Neligan

The European Commission is planning a new regulation for mandatory human rights and environmental due diligence (Due Diligence Directive) as part of the Sustainable Corporate Governance initiative. The long-awaited EU proposal is expected to have requirements that go far beyond the German Act on Due Diligence in Supply Chains (the so-called Lieferkettensorgfaltspflichtengesetz), which was regarded as a possible blueprint for a European solution. The present paper contributes to the debate on an EU due diligence regulation by presenting results of a recent survey conducted by the German Economic Institute (IW) on the potential impact of the already adopted German Act on Due Diligence in Supply Chains.

IW

Read study
Policy options in the current debate
IW-Report No. 4 21. January 2022

Global value chains of the EU member states: Policy options in the current debate

Galina Kolev / Thomas Obst

In 2020, EU companies imported intermediate products worth 2.4 trillion euros, which made up more than half of total merchandise imports of the EU. Compared to the pre-crisis year 2019, imports of intermediates decreased by 13 percent, partly driven by the lower fuel prices.

IW

Read study
Disrupted Production, Price Rises and Pandemic Policies
IW-Trends No. 4 29. November 2021

IW Economic Forecast Winter 2021: Disrupted Production, Price Rises and Pandemic Policies

IW-Forschungsgruppe Gesamtwirtschaftliche Analysen und Konjunktur

In the course of 2021 Germany’s economic recovery has once again perceptibly lost momentum. After the strain brought about at the beginning of the year by the lockdown for the second and third waves of the Covid19 pandemic, manufacturing and construction companies are now struggling with a shortage of materials, while higher prices for fossil fuels are imposing an additional burden.

IW

Read study
The transatlantic economic relations and their outstanding significance for the future of the European and the German economy
Expertise 6. September 2021

The transatlantic economic relations and their outstanding significance for the future of the European and the German economy

Galina Kolev

The EU and the US remain each other’s most important economic partners, despite the con-frontative course of the Trump administration and China’s rise as a global economic power. This is particularly the case as interconnectedness and the role of foreign affiliates in exchanging know-how and services have been gaining importance as the very fundamentals of future globalization.

IW

Content element with id 8880 Content element with id 9713