The Macroeconomic Analysis and the Business Cycle Cluster focuses on short- to medium-term economic developments in the global economy as a whole and in Germany in particular. The 2008/2009 financial crisis, the Covid19 pandemic and current geopolitical conflicts clearly show that the business cycle is alive and well. Indeed, even modern economies can suffer violent ups and downs in production and employment, with boom and bust affecting different sectors and regions in very different ways. As a result of the Covid pandemic and the Russian war in Ukraine, the spectre of inflation is also back in our daily lives. In addition, structural adjustments in the current decade are affecting employment, value added, incomes and prices.
Macroeconomics and the Business Cycle
China's dependence on the West for imports and technologies
There are mutual dependencies between China and the West that have the potential to result in high economic costs for both sides in the event of a geopolitical conflict. Should China actually plan an invasion of Taiwan, the West would be considerably affected by likely reciprocal sanctions, but due to its important position as a supplier of important goods for China, it would by no means be unable to act.
Educational attainment of the population in a European comparison
With the increasing shortage of skilled labour against the backdrop of demographic change and the changing demands on employees in the context of digitalisation, decarbonisation and de-globalisation, it is becoming increasingly important for Germany and Europe that the working population achieves the highest possible level of qualification.
Is the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act Hurting the German Economy?: An Objection to Exaggerated Claims
In an article for Atlantik Brücke, IW Director Michael Hüther and Jürgen Matthes, head of the IW's Global and Regional Markets cluster, assess the implications of the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), effective January 1, 2023, for German and European business.
EU Enlargement? Alternative concepts to full membership
Debate on whether the European Union (EU) should accept new members has recently gained momentum. In June 2022, just months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Council granted both the latter nation and the Republic of Moldova the status of candidate country, and Georgia the status of potential candidate.
Tailoring the Truth: evidence on parliamentarians’ responsiveness and misinformation toleration from a field experiment
The rise of populist radical right parties (PRRPs) is largely seen to have been triggered by a dealignment between voters and political elites and to have triggered an increasing supply of misinformation.