The world economy is in the midst of the worst recession since 60 years. The breakdown of exports has reached Germany as well. Germany’s real GDP will decrease by 4½ percent this year and grow by ½ percent in 2010. Therefore, GDP should hit bottom in the course of the year without taking off yet. Exports will shrink by 17 percent in 2009, imports by 11 percent. Consequently, foreign trade will account for three quarters of the slump in economic growth. Next year the trade balance will at least slightly support the business cycle. The present trough will also affect the labor market. Employment will go down by 1½ percent this and next year. The number of unemployed will rise to 3.75 million in 2009 and 4.3 million in 2010. Shrinking revenue and rising expenditure will increase the budget deficit to around 3 percent of GDP this year and 5 percent next year.
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Michael Grömling, Phone +49 221 4981-776, 
, DOI: 10.2373/1864-810X.09-02-02