The link between orders and production in manufacturing

Harder to Predict in Boom Time

Production and incoming ordersDuring the economic boom from 2005 to 2008 Germany’s manufacturing industry saw an uncoupling of incoming orders and production that was unobserved during as well as after the recession. This brings up the question whether the characteristics of incoming orders changed during the business cycle and, if yes, how to explain this phenomenon. The analysis shows that orders lost some of their predictive accuracy during the boom but regained it during and after the crisis. This contradictory development could be explained by variations in the order and cancellation behavior, different outsourcing activities of companies during the business cycle and, last but not least, a reshuffling within the manufacturing sector.

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IW-Newsletter
No. 4 from November 23, 2011
IW Forecast for Germany Autumn 2011: No Recession But Imponderabilities
Germany’s growth will slow markedly. In spite of the resurgence of finan­cial market problems, a recession seems, nevertheless, improbable.
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IW-Newsletter
No. 2 from April 1, 2010
IW Autumn Forecast 2009: Moderate Recovery after the Big Slump
The German economy has reached the trough faster than expected. Nevertheless in 2009 real GDP will fall below last year’s level by 4½ percent. Expansive monetary and fiscal policies have prevented an even stronger downturn in many countries.
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No. 3 from July 27, 2011
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IW-Newsletter
No. 3 from October 22, 2009
IW Economic Forecast Spring 2009: GDP Hitting Bottom
The world economy is in the midst of the worst recession since 60 years. The breakdown of exports has reached Germany as well. Germany’s real GDP will decrease by 4½ percent this year and grow by ½ percent in 2010.
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IW-Newsletter
No. 4 from July 8, 2010
The Research-Based Pharmaceutical Industry: Resistant against Business Cycle Fluctuations
The pharmaceutical industry in general and the group of research-based pharmaceutical companies in particular are less business cycle-dependent than other German industries.
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IW-Newsletter - No. 5 from December 23, 2011
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